مقالات متعلقة :

• THE WEEKLY WIRE
• The Weekly Wire

From Washington

Syrian Regime Condemned: The U.N. Security Council condemned the attacks on U.S. and French embassies. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that President Bashar al-Assad has lost legitimacy and is “not indispensable.” President Barack Obama said that Assad is increasingly losing legitimacy with his people. The New York Times argued that the U.S. has now “turned decisively” against Syria. U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford said that he has seen “no evidence” of the regime’s willingness to reform, and rejected the possibility of being recalled from Syria. French Prime Minister François Fillon suggested that Assad is losing power; he joined Western powers in calling for the U.N. Security Council to take action, and said that Syria has “gone beyond all boundaries.” French President Nicolas Sarkozy demanded more sanctions against the regime.

Debating Action in Syria: Andrew Tabler noted that Assad’s regime is disintegrating but a transition “is going to take a long time.” The Washington Post Editorial Board and Max Boot praised U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford and called for the U.S. to continue pressuring the Syrian regime. The Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI) released a fact sheet outlining steps the U.S. can take to ensure Assad’s speedy exit. Stephen Cook noted that the state-supported dialogue was not a credible step towards democracy, and predicted that the military will be a decisive factor in resolving the conflict. Soner Cagaptay and Andrew Tabler recommend the U.S. and Turkey work to pressure the Syrian regime and to prepare for post-Assad Syria. Soner Cagaptay also speculated on the domestic and international impact of Turkey invading Syria. Gareth Jenkins noted the worsening relationship between Turkey and Syria, and the economic difficulties of this deterioration.

U.S. Recognizes TNC: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced full recognition of the Transitional National Council (TNC). The remaining members of the Libya Contact Group will recognize the TNC as well. Chinese and Russian representatives declined the invitation from Turkey to attend the Contact Group meeting, where representatives were expected to develop a political plan to end hostilities in Libya. James Traub argued success in Libya will require patience and persistence from NATO, creativity from the U.S., and pragmatism from the rebels.

Clinton Criticizes Turkey for Arrests: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Turkey must act on domestic concerns for increasing human rights violations and secular traditions. Clinton said that despite these concerns, Turkey should be a model for Arab nations who are demanding reform.

Debate on Negotiations in Libya: A French spokesperson denied reports of direct negotiations with the Libyan government, but acknowledged that indirect contact had been made and that the rebels should begin negotiations. In response, the State Department reiterated that Gadhafi must leave and the Libyan people must decide how the transition proceeds. Con Coughlin argued that NATO countries are losing their resolve.

Skepticism on Gadhafi Exit: New intelligence reports indicated that Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi may be ready to negotiate a settlement. Le Figaro reported that Prime Minister Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi expressed willingness to negotiate unconditionally after a ceasefire. Other reports indicated a desire for Saif al-Islam to play a role in post-conflict Libya. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé said that Gadhafi’s exit is still not certain. U.S. State Department Spokesperson Victoria Nuland remained skeptical.

U.S. on Egypt Transition: A U.S. State Department Spokesperson reiterated U.S. support for “a transparent, participatory process that is inclusive and open. The sequence and timing is up to the Egyptian people.” Analyst Dina Guirguis described the continuing frustration regarding the pace of constitutional change as well as the major political divisions.

Prospects for Yemen: Jeb Boone argued that the next Yemeni government “will face the almost insurmountable task of recreating a state out of a county that has descended into regional control.” Bernard Haykel asserted that no viable future leaders exist, a national unity government is the best possible outcome, and even then democracy is not a guarantee.

Criticism on Bahrain: Mehdi Hasan condemned the international community’s failure to act against Bahrain. Human Rights First condemned emerging reports of the torture and abuse of Bahraini football players. And Brian Dooley said that activists are wary that the National Dialogue is “elaborate play-acting for the international community’s benefit,” and the international investigation will be ineffective.

Moroccan Reform Discussed: Ahmed Charai and Joseph Braude lauded the Moroccan referendum as highly significant, but Human Rights Watch was more skeptical, noting that violence continues and promises for reform have yet to be realized.

Supporting Democracy and Foreign Aid: Ted Piccone argued that the global democracy community gained a second wind at the recent Community of Democracies meeting. Former members of Congress Tom Daschle and Tom Ridge defended the importance of foreign aid and diplomacy in promoting economic growth, national security, and conflict prevention.

Iranian Dissent and Power Struggles: Alireza Nader discussed the growing rift between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guards, who have reportedly been instructed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to “help set the conditions for next year’s parliamentary elections as well as future elections.” Geneive Abdo released the “New Green Movement Manifesto.”

 

Also Worth Reading

Human Rights First issued a new report on the Bahraini regime’s continued intimidation, torture, and detention of activists, and violence against civilians.

The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) released a detailed report on Tunisia’s new election process.

International Crisis Group issued an analysis of “The Syrian Regime’s Slow-motion Suicide.”


From the Middle East

Ongoing Protests in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood’s Political Guidelines: In an effort to meet demands resulting from protests that began last week in Cairo, Alexandria and the Suez region, the Egyptian Supreme Council for the Armed Forces (SCAF) announced that they have postponed parliamentary elections scheduled for September, which garnered support from several political parties. Also, SCAF dismissed or reassigned 669 police personnel associated with the deaths of nearly 900 protesters in the February demonstrations. There is no word on how the interim plans are proceeding with trials of Mubarak-era officials accused of opening fire on demonstrators (which Hosni Mubarak denied that he ordered). At least eight have been injured in recent protests, according a report by al-Jazeera. Demonstrators demand swifter reforms or threatened “further escalation” will take place; Prime Minister Essam Sharaf claimed that he supports the people’s right to demonstrate but that protests must not disrupt the rest of the public. And Omar Ismail also brought protests abroad when he asked to demonstrate in front of the British cabinet to call for a freezing of assets of those associated with the Mubarak regime. The Muslim Brotherhood have been dismissing members for joining the Egyptian Current Party, stating members cannot join a party other than the officially-sanctioned Freedom and Justice Party.

Yemeni Protesters Organize New "Shadow Government”: Yemeni protesters organized a transitional council of opposition figures in an effort to force out President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The protesters who organized the transitional council are independent from Yemen's official opposition parties.

Syrian Protest Movement Gains Momentum: Protests escalated throughout the week. Forces stormed the central city of Homs, killing two and injured 20. Friday saw at least 14 deaths and the shutdown of phone and internet services. A harsher and continued crackdown is feared as a result of mounting international pressure and a shift in U.S. rhetoric. It is estimated that 1,750 civilians and security personnel have been killed and 12,000 arrested since the uprisings began. A report emerged of security forces beating a handicapped man.

In Case You Missed It