Lisa Mullins talks with Laith Kubba, Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy in Washington, about how Egypt’s elections are being viewed across the Arab world.

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Lisa Mullins: In Egypt, popular discontent is aimed at the country’s military rulers. Massive protests last week in Cairo demanded that the generals hand over power immediately to a civilian government. Those protests were mostly put on hold this week as Egyptians turned out in high numbers to vote. The elections in Egypt represent an important new phase of the revolts of the Arab Spring. Despite the removal of long time rulers such as Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, what comes next is uncertain. Laith Kubba is Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy. He says throughout the Arab world people are paying attention.

Laith Kubba: I think all the eyes are set on Egypt. Egypt has been a standard bearer for a long time. It’s the largest Arab country. Its institutions, whether it be the media, the cinema, the religious institutions, are all looked upon in so many other Arab countries, and normally Arab governments take their cue from what happens in Egypt. And that is the reason why it is so important to look at what’s going on and the outcome. If this goes well I think it will seal more or less what’s going to happen in so many other Arab countries. All of it has to go now the election way. But if this falls apart then I think the argument for authoritarianism would still be on the table and you will see Arab rulers and media, and intellectuals, some arguing maybe we’re not ready for democracy yet. So it’s very important to see Egypt doing this successfully and them doing it well.

Mullins: So do you believe that the smoother the election goes in Egypt the more difficult things become for someone like Bashar al-Assad in Syria, who is clinging to power despite the international calls and domestic calls for him to leave?

Kubba: I think I will make a stronger comparison with Yemen. I think the fact that there is a positive electoral outcome in Egypt will definitely impact him indirectly and bring an end to the regime of Saleh, and it will accelerate an alternative regime.

Mullins: But President Saleh, excuse me, he’s already said he’s going to be leaving office.

Kubba: That’s correct, but there are more issues to do with his regime rather than his person, and I think what we’re seeing in Egypt is a total breakaway from the regime of Mubarak. And I think the same will happen in Yemen. But with Syria currently there seems to be some existential threats to some communal divisions. The Christians in Syria feel threatened. The Alawites who had kept power for so long, they’re about 10% of the population, but they have maybe 80% of the power, they are under threat. And with those existential threats you cannot have a fight because you’ll end up with a civil war. The only way you can have is some deal with a regime initially. Even if you were to agree on a democratic system, the transition can be very bloody and very messy unless the army intervenes. Do not forget, the army in Egypt intervened in Egypt. Something similar can save Syria if the army intervenes, becomes an interim government until elections are held. But if that does not happen then it might be an all out violent change.

Mullins: What about another country that has not experienced an Arab Spring, specifically your country. You’re in Iraq, senior advisor to the Iraqi prime minister back in 2005, a spokesman for the Iraqi government, how are you watching this Egyptian election and what do you think if there is any kind of knock on effect in Iraq, what do you think that might be?

Kubba: Well, it’s most interesting because the Iraqi press, they’re watching it carefully in their editorial coverage — basically highlighting some of the imperfections that are the Egyptian process, but by in large they are endorsing that there is something very positive taking place in Egypt. The experience of Iraq was different from Egypt. Iraq has a schizophrenic state by which it is proud that it was the first Arab country to have elections, but at the same time Iraqis know two things — 1) this took place under an occupying army, and 2) the system that was brought about by free elections so far in Iraq is not a good system. It’s not functioning well. It is not delivering the services that people hoped for. But I think street power will find its ways in Iraq to fix the system. Iraq I think may be better than Egypt in the fact it has a stronger civil society that’s going to take advantage of all the lessons learned from the Arab Spring. And I’m sure eventually Iraq’s system will fix itself.

Mullins: Well, it’s good to talk to you, Laith Kubba, at the National Endowment for Democracy in Washington, speaking to us about how Egypt’s election is being viewed across the Arab world, including his own country, Iraq. Thanks a lot.

Kubba: Thanks.