Muslim Brotherhood Leadership of Egypt Will Lead to Further Instability‏

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Muslim Brotherhood Leadership of Egypt Will Lead to Further Instability‏

Muslim Brotherhood Leadership of Egypt Will Lead to Further Instability

By Tawfik Hamid

www.tawfikhamid.com

In her speech to the National Democratic Institute in Washington, DC, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that democratic freedoms were the best guarantee of stability in the long run.

While the theory that democracy is the best guarantee for stability in the long run is supported by history, it is important to realize that this statement may not apply to Egypt at the current stage of its history if the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) gains a significant leadership role. This distinction, which many may dispute, is due to the fact that the foundational principles of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) of Egypt can create a situation that will inevitably bring more instability to the country.

Unlike the Ennahdah party of Tunisia that expressed its acceptance of the freedom of women to dress as they wish and the freedom of individuals to drink alcohol ([i] ), the MB of Egypt has not yet issued a single clear statement to support these freedoms that are vital for Egypt's tourism industry.

In fact, the Egyptian MB leaders explicitly and repeatedly expressed their desire to prohibit the drinking of alcohol and to prevent female tourists from wearing 'un-Islamic' dress. This suppression of freedom can simply cause significant damage to the tourism industry. This will result in a significant economic downturn as tourism not only represents more than 10% of the GDP of Egypt, but also employs millions of Egyptians. The resulting economic and social disasters - if these decisions are taken by a democratically elected MB - can only lead to more instability.

Some may argue that the MB may be able to initiate a high tech industry to compensate for the possible damage. This can be correct only in theory -as it is very difficult - if not practically impossible - for a low tech, low skill population in Egypt to create a high tech export growth takeoff curve. This simply means that the expected collapse of the tourism industry if the MB came to power and implemented Sharia Laws (as they clearly expressed), will not be immediately compensated by sufficient economic revenues. Demographics will also increase political risk in Egypt, since the post-Mubarak government will need to absorb 600,000 new workers in the economy per annum.

Evidence supports the above concerns about the MB of Egypt. For example, the MB leaders turned against the Turkish Prime Minster (Erdogan) after he clearly supported secularism when he recently visited Cairo. In addition, the MB did not show the expected support for Ennahdah Party of Tunisia after it won 40% of the seats of the recent elections in Tunisia. This attitude is likely because the MB of Egypt opposes the views expressed by Al-Ghannushi (the leader of the party) that permits women to dress in swimwear and allows the selling and drinking of alcohol. The MB of Egypt also kicked Abdul Muneim Abu El-futooh (currently one of the presidential candidates) -who expressed similar pro-freedom views- from their organization.

The MB of Egypt refused to discuss the concept that there should be foundational principles for the next Egyptian Constitution to protect true values of freedom and equality ([ii] ). They also refused to sit with the deputy Prime Minster of the country to discuss these principles ([iii] ). Refusing to sit to discuss these principles is a clear indication of the real intentions of the MB of Egypt - which is to create a NEW constitution when they reach power so that they can implement full Islamic Sharia law. This will not only give a major blow to tourism but will also end any hope for modernity in the country.

The MB of Egypt is also a very strong supporter for the Hamas terrorist organization. This position may result in supporting this terrorist organization in different forms. For example, opening the border with Gaza can allow more jihadists to enter Sinai (as what recently happened) and thus gives another blow to the currently struggling tourism industry. Furthermore, the MB is likely to facilitate smuggling weapons to Gaza to attack Israel. The latter case scenario can initiate frictions between Egypt and Israel and may ultimately end in a war in the area that can have a destructive effect on the whole region.

Another factor that can add fuel to the fire is that if the MB decided to withdraw from western banking systems and move the economy completely toward Sharia banking ([iv]). The expected economic confrontations and problems that are likely to happen in this situation can only result in further instability. The difference between the MB of Egypt and some Gulf countries that accept Sharia finance is that most of these countries accept the existence of western banking systems beside the Sharia one while the MB of Egypt is unlikely to allow western banking and fiance to exist[iv] .

In brief, the economy of Egypt is currently in a critical condition. The expected collapse of its tourism industry, the strong support for Hamas, and the rejection of western banking systems that will occur if a 'democratically elected' MB dominates the political power in Egypt can only bring disasters to the country and cause more instability. In other words, the dream that democracy will bring stability to Egypt is unrealistic if the MB came to power. Instability of Egypt at this stage may have irreversible consequences and may drag the country to more serious forms of Islamic Radicalism.

[i] Some of these principles give more power to the Military but the main purpose for these principles is to protect secularism of the country and ensure that there will be no discrimination against minorities.

[iv] Many Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia are ruled by pro-western families that allowed the existence of western banking systems. The MB of Egypt is more Islamized than many of these rulers and thus is likely to ban western banking systems based on the religious view that it is "Rebba'or 'usury". In addition, the MB is likely to need the Salafi Islamic groups to support them in passing laws in the parliament. The Salafi groups consider than banning western banking systems as one of their priorities.

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