The Fate of M. Ibn Salman and his Saudi Kingdom

Published in November 14, 2017

Translated by: Ahmed Fathy

Introduction:

1- M. Ibn Salman, the Saudi crown-prince now, was entirely unknown for years; yet, his name now occupies the headlines in international media because of his drastic measures and decisions taken inside the Saudi kingdom whose adopted policies are secrecy, rigidness, and compromises. The whole world is amazed by this young prince who before becoming a king has involved his kingdom within devilish war in Yemen and the siege of Qatar. M. Ibn Salman got rid of the senior princes who are sons of his paternal uncles, and he is bent on facing Iran, and his regional allies are under his control. Yet, he is reckless and impetuous; he is losing militarily and politically, because he creates crises and does not know when to stop or how to get out of them, involving his regional allies in the troubles he makes.    

2- M. Ibn Salman does not tolerate being criticized and demands praise and applause however enormous his crimes and mistakes are. In fact, he has created enemies inside the Saudi family and within Saudi Wahabi extremists and then outside in fronts like Yemen and Qatar, and before getting out of any crises he has made, he has created more enemies in the front of Lebanon. 

3- Indeed, M. Ibn Salman is unique in his political immaturity; it is strange that his acts of impetuosity take place at the time when the strategy experts pose their questions about the imminent downfall of the Saudi state. Such questions were mere whispers before the rise of M. Ibn Salman as the crown-prince, and now, these questions are vociferous and outspoken in media worldwide, because of the recklessness of such prince.   

4- We have previously tackled the fact that M. Ibn Salman has no real army of devoted soldiers to defend him and his throne, and in light of this, we think of the fate of the crown-prince and of the dangers surrounding him which he faces without a real army but with tyrannical, reckless policies leading to nothing but failure and they will bring about the ruin and downfall of the Saudi kingdom.    

Firstly: internal sources of danger:

Wahabism:

 M. Ibn Salman has declared his intention to impose the so-called 'moderate' Islam and to review hadiths; this indicates he is rejecting Wahabism, and this will result in the following points.

1- As Ibn Salman rejects the Sunnite Ibn Hanbal doctrine revived by Wahabism that provides the fake religious legitimacy for the Saudi royal family, he will depend solely on the ancestral legitimacy of Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud who conquered regions of Arabia with his sword. This type of legitimacy is not confined to M. Ibn Salman, as it is linked to all of the Saudi royal family members. This type of legitimacy has waned by the aggression committed by M. Ibn Salman to princes of the Saudi family members.        

2- As M. Ibn Salman rejects the fake legitimacy drawn from Wahabism, he sticks to injustices and tyranny in a way reminiscent of the rule of Saddam Hussein in Iraq who waged war against Iran using the ideology of Pan-Arabism or Arab nationalism, and those who opposed him were punished severely. Of course, international powers manipulated Saddam Hussein and this happens again now with M. Ibn Salman.    

3- As M. Ibn Salman rejects the fake legitimacy drawn from Wahabism, he has created enemies among the Wahabis who submit to the Saudi family rule as per the Wahabi religion taught to them; we refer here to most Sunnite Wahabis living inside the Saudi kingdom, who are not activists, but they would deem M. Ibn Salman as an infidel and apostate who deserves to be put to death as per their Wahabism. They will think of rebelling against him as he rejects Wahabism, and this will make them activists who join the Wahabi opposition movement. This sentiments of animosity increases as M. Ibn Salman uses the 'Christian' Blackwater mercenaries to oppress 'Muslims', even senior princes of his Saudi family and known Wahabi preachers like Salman Ouda, and that he submits to the American policies and he appeased Trump by hundreds of billions US$. Wahabis inside the Saudi kingdom surely hate the fact that M. Ibn Salman cooperates and coordinates with Israel, and the latter seek to build diplomatic relations with the Saudi kingdom. Would this result in suicide bombers attempting to assassinate M. Ibn Salman?!            

The Saudi royal family members:

1- Traditionally inside the Saudi kingdom, disputes among royal family members are settled with compromises so as not to let disputes exacerbate, even when crown-prince Feisal deposed king Saud his brother, when king Feisal was assassinated by one of his relatives, and when king Fahd had no powers confiscated by the crown-prince Abdullah.         

2- Within the policy described in the above point, we see the familial spirit and tribal values that emphasizes the old age; for instance, the prince M. Ibn Abdul-Aziz was the eldest son of Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud and he controlled the whole Saudi family including the Saudi king. Even the eldest princes within the generation of the grandchildren of Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud had their own stature. Yet, such traditions are now rejected by M. Ibn Salman who incarcerated and tortured the senior princes among the sons of his paternal uncles, and this has intimidated and terrorized the rest of the Saudi family members who had no choice now but to submit to will of M. Ibn Salman.

3- Thus, most of the affluent, pampered princes of the Saudi family members who lives in luxury and extravagance have submitted to M. Ibn Salman and those who refused to submit are now incarcerated under surveillance. Those who desire an audience with M. Ibn Salman are being searched thoroughly so as he would avoid being assassinated as was the case of king Feisal. But who knows? There is an intricate, complicated relations among the Saudi family members (who are said to be about 11 thousand persons), and M. Ibn Salman needs many of those hypocrites to be by his side. Most of them are adamant in hypocrisy and the crown-prince does not know their intentions; maybe one of them might be courageous enough to assassinate him to save the rest of the Saudi family members. This possibility cannot be excluded and precautionary measures never prevent predestined fate.      

Secondly: regional sources of danger:

1- We mean Iran in particular, whose arm inside the Saudi kingdom is the Shiites who live in Al-Ahsa region that has the biggest oil reserve in the world. Another arm of Iran inside Arabia is in Yemen. Shiites inside the Saudi kingdom and worldwide are arch-enemies of the Saudi royal family.

2- King Salman has tried to be friends with Shiites ruling Iraq, but it is impossible for Shiites to forget massacres committed by Saudis within the first Saudi state and the third, current Saudi state, nor massacres committed in Iraq by the Wahabi terrorist group ISIS. Wahabi terrorists in Iraq have massacred hundreds of thousands of Iraqis: Shiites, Sunnites, Christians, and Yazidis. We are to remember that Shiites love too much to engage into the lamentation of the dead as part of their religious rituals. There is hardly any Shiite Iraqi family that has not lost on member killed by Wahabis in Karbala and other cities in Iraq.     

3- Moreover, political circumstances will prevent Iraq to join M. Ibn Salman who desires to face Iran. Besides, Shiites are loyal to their religion more than their homelands, and this applies to Shiites of the Gulf monarchies and of Hezbollah in Lebanon and even Shiite minority in Egypt, if they have the chance. All those Shiites suffer from the dominance of Sunnite regimes that ally themselves to the Saudi kingdom. Thus, even if king Salman and the Iraqi prime minister Al-Abady exchanged smiles, this will never hide mutual hatred; Shiites inside and outside the Saudi kingdom will never hesitate to take revenge against the Saudi family members if they have the chance; they never forget the suffering inflicted on them by the Saudi family since the 18^th century until now.       

4- The biggest danger comes from the Shiites of Yemen led by the Houthis. The Saudi family members manipulated the Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh and the president Mansour Hadi detained inside the KSA now. Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud was wise enough never to attempt to conquer the Yemeni quagmire, in contrast to the recklessness and impetuosity of M. Ibn Salman now. Yemen poses a veritable threat to the Saudi family members, and Yemenis have rights in the areas that separate them from Hejaz. The Houthis are keen to invade such regions if this is made possible anytime. Iran who meddles in the Yemeni affairs play its cards with calmness and shrewdness, in contrast to the recklessness and impetuosity of M. Ibn Salman.    

5- Cards of the game are held by Iran now, and the only thing that prevents Iran from crushing M. Ibn Salman and his Saudi kingdom is the understanding of international balances. Iran waits for the opportunity one day to attack and crush the Saudi royal family by attacks from the East and the South-West. The ballistic missile launched at Riyadh might have been a message from Iran to remind M. Ibn Salman to its weight and presence. Thus, if Ibn Salman has no real army but warplanes that massacre women and children in Yemen, any missiles from any direction can destroy palaces of Al-Saud family members. Iran will never risk to provoke the ire of the international community (which is, in fact, the USA) against it if it would destroy the Saudi family in an unsuitable time.      

6- This is when compromises must be sought. 

Thirdly: international sources of danger (the international community; i.e., the USA):

Noteworthy remarks:

1- The assassination of king Salman and his son does NOT lead necessarily to the collapse of the Saudi kingdom. It is possible that the USA – after consulting EU and Russia – might plan to get rid of king Salman and his son and to appoint a new king who will submit more to the Americans and be less imprudent in comparison to M. Ibn Salman. International powers might agree to end the Saudi kingdom, to get rid of the Saudi royal family, and to redefine borders in Arabia. It is possible that the USA would cooperate with Iran if there is mutual benefit and gains, because money (or Mammon) is the only worshipped god in politics.    

2- This query is raised: which is better for the USA? To cause the Saudi kingdom to collapse now or to milk the Saudi cow until its death?

3- The following queries are similarly raised.

3/1: When the Saudi kingdom collapses, who will control the oil of Al-Ahsa region? The USA will never leave it to Iran, but all parties can be satisfied within agreements to share the spoils.  

3/2: The USA will prevent the sabotage of oil fields of Arabia (Saddam Hussein had sabotaged the oil fields of Kuwait in 1992). The USA has experience in extinguishing fires of oil fields and it will make use of it.

3/3: When the Saudi kingdom collapses, an independent state in the Hejaz region may emerge and an international organization to facilitate and supervise pilgrimage to Mecca: an Islamic duty of vital importance.

3/4: When the Saudi kingdom collapses, minor states might emerge in Arabia and fight one another within wars and bloodbaths. This will make weapons markets flourish in the USA, Russia, and the EU, and the Muhammadans will return to their old habits of destroying themselves by their own hands and hands of others as well.

3/5: When the Saudi kingdom collapses, the Saudi royal family members will disperse around the globe in quest for their trillions of US$ smuggled to the EU and the USA within money-laundering, bank-accounts, companies, gold, and assets. The West will confiscate all such huge sums of money and the West might even exterminate Saudi family members who have such money. We talk here about a few thousands of Saudi family members who own trillions of US$  stolen from the rightful owners. Hence, to destroy the Saudi royal family members means to gain these trillions of US$ so easily in little time.

Lastly:

1- M. Ibn Salman follows now the zero equation; i.e., he would have 100% of things and others would have a big zero. This leads inevitably to existential conflict: it is either his life or the lives of others.

2- The whole world follows the policy of compromises and mutual benefits and agreements; no one is allowed to eat the whole cake alone. Ibn Salman with his polices leading inevitably to failure will make his allies among Arab rulers reject him eventually. The international powers that manipulates M. Ibn Salman temporarily will get rid of him one day and will negotiate an compromise among themselves to share the spoils after the imminent collapse of the Saudi kingdom. 

3- The haughty, arrogant crown-prince M. Ibn Salman may be eliminated sooner than we think!