Committee Hearings

On Wednesday (3/16), the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a confirmation hearing for Robert Stephen Ford, the nominee to be the next U.S. Ambassador to Syria.  Ford previously served as U.S. Ambassador to Algeria from 2006 to 2008, and since then as the Deputy Chief of Mission in Iraq.  During the hearing, Ford acknowledged "major human rights problems in Syria, such as the arrest and torture of human rights activists" and he promised to "find ways to push for improvements in the human rights situation in Syria and also to show our high-level support for those Syrians working for the promotion of basic human rights in Syria." The full prepared statement of Ambassador Ford is available on the committee's website, along with opening statements by Senator Kerry and Senator Lugar.  Senator Kerry remarked that he expects the committee to vote to confirm Ambassador Ford before adjourning for the two-week recess at the end of this week. 
 

From Washington

Debating Democracy's Viability in the Middle East: In an interview with United Arab Emirates-based Gulf News, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Tamara Wittes extolled democracy's tremendous capacity to foster sustainable growth, economic advancement, and societal stability. "We believe in democracy as a human value and an essential need for mankind," said Wittes. "We also believe that participation in decision-making process is essential for success. The US is not willing to impose democratic values in the Arab world. We need people to adopt the democratic participation in decision-making process the way that suits them and we are convinced that democracy cannot live on its own." But David Ottaway is less optimistic about the viability of democracy in a region filled with "master manipulators" who "skillfully [use] elections to illustrate the dangers democracy might end up posing to U.S. interests."

Meanwhile, Francis Fukuyamainsisted that the true meaning of a "democracy agenda" doesn't mandate "the loud trumpeting of promises of support for regional democracy that we cannot keep," but instead requires "working quietly behind the scenes to push friendly authoritarians towards a genuine broadening of political space in their countries through the repeal of countless exceptional laws, defamation codes, party registration statutes and the like that hinder the emergence of real democratic contestation."
 

From the Middle East
 

Online Social Networking Disruptions in Egypt, Morocco:After three telecommunications companies complained about revenue losses, the Egyptian National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority decided to block access to Skype - a software application that enables voice-calls over the Internet - for USB modem users. Ramy Raoof of Global Voices Advocacy spoke to a representative at Internet-provider Vodafone, who explained that companies were blaming Skype for their lower-than-anticipated earnings. Elsewhere, Jillian York drew attention to a Moroccan Facebook group that was administratively deleted from Facebook's server. The group, which advocates for the separation of religion and education, has since been reinstated, but York suspects the Moroccan government may have been responsible for the original removal. Like Issandr El Amrani, she observed that Facebook is being used for political purposes, but contended that "the downfall, of course, is Facebook itself, which has garnered a reputation for selectively enforcing its own [terms of service]."

Concerns and Cheers Surface in Post-Election Iraq: Many Iraqis had reportedly expressed increasing frustration with the slow pace by which the votes are tallied. Almost two weeks after the election, some 90 percent of the vote had been counted. Many Western officials privately expressed concern that the absence of clear results in a timely matter may have negative repercussions on the credibility of the elections. Iraq's Arab neighbors also anxiously await the outcomes, hoping that any coalition government formed by a likely Shiite front-runner will not be unduly influenced by Iran. Magid Mazloum of the Center for Gulf Studies in Cairo summed up Sunni fears: "These election results show that there is a Shi'ite wave in the region which threatens Arab security in the region. Iran has a hidden role in the Arab region and it supports Shi'ite elements in the area, particularly in Iraq." According to David Ignatius, "The best thing about Sunday's election, judging from early results, is that no party won so big that it can form a government on its own." He continued, "This will be democracy Iraq-style, something closer to a day spent haggling in the souk than a visit to the Lincoln Memorial." Charles Dunne agreed, explaining that "far from creating chaos, the government formation process, difficult and lengthy though it may be, might very well yield a more broadly representative and vigorous government."

In similar news, Joshua Muravchik, wrote an intriguing piece in World Affairs, heaping unbridled self-criticism on the neoconservative movement for its "infatuation with Ahmad Chalabi." He concluded, arguing that "the games Chalabi is playing are a threat both to Iraq's prospects for democracy, as well as to America's interests in the region."

Iranian Bloggers Awarded for Post-Election Coverage: Google joined with Reporters Without Borders (RSF) to honor a group of Iranian female bloggers - who publish the site Change for Equality [Farsi] - for their courageous display of journalism during Iran's post-election unrest last year. In accepting the award, Parvin Adalan, one of the site's founders, said that the Iranian women's movement is "bringing its experience and methods of working democratically into cyberspace." RSF emphasized the Internet's invaluable role following President Ahmedinejad's disputed election, saying that "the Iranian blogosphere is every active and deserves strong support. Without these courageous and determined netizens, we would be deprived of information that is essential for understanding our world." In related news, Google also celebrated last week's move by the Treasury Department to ease Internet export restrictions to Iran, Cuba, and Sudan.

Christian Aid Workers Expelled from Morocco: In what many view as a sudden and unexpected change in policy, the Moroccan government announced the forthcoming deportation of dozens of Christian aid workers after accusing them of unlawful proselytizing. Although a Moroccan official rejected claims of discrimination and maintained that this was simply a "move against people who don't respect the law of this country," U.S. Ambassador to Morocco Samuel Kaplan was "discouraged and saddened" by what he views as the unnecessary expulsion of law-abiding foreign nationals. Unsurprised by this rather arbitrary crackdown, even after years of relative tolerance under King Mohamed VI, one observer surmised that Morocco's inconsistent enforcement of various laws makes it "hard to know what really is permissible and what is not...since a rule on the books does not necessarily mean anything."

Heightened Speculation Surrounding Mubarak's Health:As President Mubarak slowly reemerged from his gallbladder procedure, four of Egypt's opposition parties - Al-Wafd, Al-Tagamu, Al-Nasseri and Al-Gabha - issued a statement in Cairo calling on Mubarak to step down as head of the ruling National Democratic Party. The group also urged all opposition forces to unite in upcoming parliamentary elections and to coordinate all protests and vigils. Former Egyptian presidential candidate Aladdin Elaasar noted that with Egypt now "at a dangerous crossroads" President Obama should "reevaluate American/Egyptian relations." Citing serious concerns about human rights abuses and rampant poverty, Elaasar predicted that "the U.S. is facing looming dangers in the largest Arab country." The Washington Post editorial board also joined the chorus against Mubarak, claiming that Mohamed ElBaradei's movement "represents a rare opportunity to liberalize Egypt's political system."

Nathan Brown took a look at Egypt's chain of command as well the implications of its "stultifying political environment," stressing that because the government initiated a broad security campaign to crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood following its electoral success in 2005, and with the understanding that the Brotherhood is the only opposition force with both a coherent vision and solid constituency, "the Egyptian regime will be facing an opposition of inchoate protests and armchair intellectuals." In terms of identifying who within the regime actually holds the strings of power, Michael Collins Dunn surmised that members of Egypt's security apparatus maintain tremendous influence as well as various leaders within Mubarak's own National Democratic Party. But he contends that Gamal Mubarak, thought by many to be the most likely presidential successor, has yet to truly emerge as the "supreme" political actor.

Egyptian Court Rules for Female Judges: After weeks of demonstrations demanding that the government allow female appointments to the State Council, Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court overturned the gender-based ban and further ruled that the Council's general assembly lacked the authority to establish exclusionary provisions. The decision left some feeling unfulfilled, however, including legal expert Nasser Amin who explained that the court was not decisive enough in its judgment to prevent similar issues from arising in the future.

Elsewhere, debate continued over potential successors to Sheikh Mohammed Sayed Tantawi, the moderate yet often polarizing Grand Imam of Al-Azhar University who recently passed away during a visit to Saudi Arabia. Amro Hassan presented a few front-runners for this prestigious position - arguably the most powerful in all of Sunni Islam - including Grand Mufti Ali Gomaa and the current president of Al-Azhar, Ahmed Tayeb, both of whom are thought to subscribe to relatively moderate strains of Islam.

EU Leaders Call for an End to Iranian Censorship: Ambassadors from three European Union nations along with EU foreign affairs chief, Catherine Ashton, protested Iran's tightening grip on free expression and promised to respond if need be, according to a document seen by the AFP. Meanwhile, the New York Times reported that democracy activists in Iran have eagerly embraced the U.S. Treasury's decision to lift sanctions on tech companies that export Internet services. At the same time, many would still prefer that all bans on trade in online services will be lifted in the hopes of circumventing the government's attempts at censorship.

Also Worth Reading

The National Democratic Institute recently released its "Final Report on the Lebanese Parliamentary Election" [PDF], which finds that although the 2009 contest was "fundamentally peaceful and well-administered," a combination of political deals and a unique electoral system "meant that the outcome was predetermined in all but a few of the most contested regions." To improve Lebanon's electoral processes and strengthen its vulnerable democratic institutions, NDI offers a set of sixteen general recommendations and expresses its hope that regional actors "give space so that continued electoral reform and democratic development can move forward and Lebanon can freely determine its own future within the framework of autonomous democratic institutions." If interested, an Arabic version [PDF] of the report is available as well.

In its two most recent offerings, the Arab Reform Bulletin assessed the political landscape in both Algeria and Kuwait. Journalist Mahmoud Belhimer, troubled by the failure of recent government initiatives to alleviate Algeria's ongoing economic turmoil and build a higher level of democratic pluralism, wondered how a forthcoming generational shift in political leadership might affect Algeria's democratic trajectory. Yet regardless of who succeeds President Bouteflika, Belhimer contends that "the next president will not succeed in establishing true stability and prosperity if he maintains the approach of keeping power in the hands of a few and preventing popular political participation and government accountability." ARB editor Michele Dunne also details the contents of a recent interview with Dr. Rola Dashti, a Kuwaiti democratic activist and one of the first four women to ever be elected to Kuwait's parliament in 2009. Check out the full exchange here.
 

In Case You Missed It
 

On Tuesday (3/16), the New America Foundation hosted an event to explore the value of strategic communications and public diplomacy 2.0 as part of the United States' overall strategy toward Iran. Steve Clemons, Director of the American Strategy Program at New American, moderated a discussion featuring James Glassman, Director of the George W. Bush Institute and former Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs. Click here for POMED's notes in PDF, or read them on our blog.

On Wednesday (3/17), the Brookings Institution, in collaboration with Sabanci University, held the sixth annual Sakip Sabanci Lecture with Philip H. Gordon, Assistant Secretary of European and Eurasian Affairs, to discuss the Obama administration's perspective on Turkey, its relationship with the United States and the European Union, and its role across the Middle East and throughout the world. POMED's notes are available in PDF, or on our blog.

On Thursday (3/18), the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted an event with Professor Mehrzad Boroujerdi of Syracuse University, who is compiling a database with detailed information on nearly 2,000 people in the political elite of Iran - from cabinet and parliament members to religious authorities, military officer, members of the judiciary, and presidential advisors. He presented his preliminary findings and discussed their implications for Iran' tumultuous political landscape. Daniel Brumberg from the United States Institute of Peace also provided some thoughts following the presentation. You can find POMED's notes in PDF or on our blog.