Possible case scenarios for the future of Egypt

By Tawfik Hamid

www.tawfikhamid.com

Violent clashes erupted in Egypt between the anti-Mubarak groups and others who were described as "pro-Mubarak". Some of the pro-Mubarak groups attacked the anti-Mubarak demonstrators while riding on horses and camels thundering through the central square of Cairo, "Liberation Square". The latter who were described in some official Egyptian media as "Pro-Stability" attacked the former with clubs and rocks.  Ultimately, the once uniform demonstration against the government has now escalated into a two-sided, pro and anti-Mubarak confrontation.  At the moment of writing this Op-Ed, these very violent clashes, including the use of Molotov cocktails, is becoming uncontrollable mayhem and chaos.

It is clear that violent approach of the pro-Mubarak groups, who may or may not be supported by some elements in the government, was completely the opposite of the initial peaceful demonstrations of the Anti-Mubarak groups. The violence of the Pro-Mubarak elements has changed the ongoing scenario from peaceful demands to violent confrontations that could spread to others areas. 

The anti-Mubarak groups were not satisfied with the promise of  President Mubarak that he will not run for re-election in the coming election simply because the very same president promised that he would not seek a third term when he came to power in the early 1980s (he is now in his 5th term!). Many Egyptians, including myself, heard these promises in his speeches to the nation. Therefore in the current situation the anti-Mubarak groups are not ready to trust him again with such promises.

It is clearly observed that when opponents of Mubarak felt that they have no representation in Parliament after the recent elections brought nearly 100% of the seats to the Mubarak supporters, they turned to the streets to express their opinion in the form of peaceful demonstrations. If the Pro-Mubarak alliance continues to suppress this as well, as they are currently doing, the next stage which is now beginning, will be a change from peaceful to violent demonstrations but even more so violent clashes between opposing forces. If the latter option is also blocked they may become small groups of guerrillas doing violent acts as we see in Iraq which will be another step beyond control to an actual civil war.

President Mubarak could have avoided the current disaster and protected the country from a possible bloody case scenario if he left power yesterday or within a few days to prove to the people of Egypt that his promise is serious this time. Now the Military must simply choose between protecting Mubarak or protecting Egypt and the fate of the next real government will be in their hands.

Islamic elements supported by Hamas, Hezb Allah, and Iran may utilize this opportunity to end true popular rule in the country. In fact Islamists have been seen in the demonstrations and some of them were involved in damaging the ancient Egyptian historical monuments as they is seen by the Islamists as "Idols" that must be destroyed.

The highly expected long-term economic problem that will inevitably occur as a result of the current chaos can actually increase the possibility that anti-Mubarak groups can turn to the use of violence. The loss of enormous amounts of money coming from tourism directly into the hand of many Egyptian businesses and workers, and the likely shut down of many of these businesses as a result of the problem can add more fuel to the fire of poverty that is already so prevalent in the country. This poverty can only work to increase Islamic Radicalism and that most likely is their goal.  

In brief, the loss of hope that the change can happen peacefully, the unavoidable economic crisis that will certainly follow, and the possible role for Islamists in the coming stage, can end in collapse of the country. In fact, as I am writing this Op-Ed demonstrations are erupting outside of Cairo to support the Anti-Mubarak groups.

The more the Military of Egypt delay in their intervention to remove Mubarak and take power the more likely they will be seen as collaborators with Mubarak and the less likely that people will accept them in the future. The same lack of urgency that cost Mubarak the initial peace now may claim the military in the same way. They must urgently act now to save Egypt!

In my view, the most effective way to avoid this destructive case scenario is the following:

1-     Military in Egypt MUST remove President Mubarak from power NOW and take control of the country.

2-    The Military MUST inform the people of Egypt that they will investigate the rumors that the Mubarak family used the power of the president to steal the money of Egypt and that they will bring this money back to the Egyptians if these rumors were true.

3-    Announce that they will act under Martial Law for short period of time and will have no mercy with those who will threaten the security of the country (to deter those who are thinking of using violence)

4-    Announce that the government will restore the Internet and that the banking system will start very soon and announce a specific time to resume normal activities. (This can give people in Egypt a desperately needed hope which is vital to create stability in this situation)

5-     Emergency food aid MUST be sent to those who are unable to get food due to the current crisis. If US started now sending some USAID to Egypt they would be the first country to do so. Again, this act of friendship will mean more to the Egyptian people than all the claims of leadership by the Obama Administration.

Note: It is clearly observable that ALL demonstrations that occurred around the Egyptian Embassies in Europe and in the US in relation to Mubarak were anti-Mubarak (with NO single exception until now). This complete lack of  pro-Mubarak demonstrations outside Egypt make it more likely that the so called "Pro-Mubarak" demonstrations in Egypt are   actually created by the government itself rather than a genuine reaction of the Egyptian people to support the President (otherwise we would have seen some of these demonstrations outside the borders of the country).