Tunisia: The revolution is over, can reform continue?

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Tunisia: The revolution is over, can reform continue?

 

Tunisia: The revolution is over, can reform continue?

by Marina Ottaway

 

 
Marina Ottaway, a senior associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, works on issues of political transformation in the Middle East and Gulf security. A long-time analyst of the formation and transformation of political systems, she has also written on political reconstruction in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Balkans, and African countries.


Related Analysis
The Arab Summer: Taking Stock (op-ed, Ahram Online, July 6)
The revolution is over in Tunisia and most of its citizens want it to be this way, according to conversations and interviews during a recent trip to the country. Protests, if they take place at all, are becoming increasingly marginal—small groups carrying signs and shouting slogans on the Avenue Bourguiba, the scene of the mass protests that brought down President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, receive hardly a glance from passersby going about their normal lives.
» Read oNLINE
The end of the revolutionary phase of the Tunisian transformation is an inevitable and by-and-large positive development. Street protest can be a successful tool for tearing down the old—in countries with authoritarian systems, it may be the only means for political change. But street protest cannot build new institutions and develop a democratic system. At some point, revolution must give way to reform. The question in Tunisia now is whether the reform process can gather momentum or the country will stagnate in a political limbo, having gotten rid of Ben Ali and the top layer of his regime but unable to move forward.

The answer to the question is not a foregone conclusion. Tensions and divisions among political forces that are immediately apparent to a visitor may well put a brake on the reform process. The chasm that separates Islamist organizations from the rest is at the center of the tension. There is real fear of Islamist domination in Tunisia, particularly by the segment of the urban population long accustomed to a free lifestyle where religion is a private choice. But there is also real fear on the part of the Islamist organizations about something rather nebulously called the “left,” a term that seems to denote most organizations from the moderate center-right to the extreme left. To make matters worse, both sides appear paranoid in their fears, setting forth arguments that appear irrational to an outside observer.

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