By Professor Fathi El-Shihibi

• The metamorphoses of Arab youths’ uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt

My initial desire to explore and come to an understanding of the internal mechanisms of the Tunisian and Egyptian youths’ Revolutions and revolutions in general led me first to revisit known revolutions including the 1640 English Revolution, the 1775 American Revolution, the 1789 French Revolution, the 1917 Russian Revolution and the 1881 Urabi Revolution in Egypt.

It is important to mention here that the 1881 French occupation of Tunisia led to an unprecedented and direct intervention in the internal affairs of Egypt by the French and British governments thereby igniting the Urabi Revolution under the banner of “Egypt for the Egyptians”. During my search for common grounds involving these revolutions I came across a book aptly titled “The Anatomy of Revolution”(1) which was written by the late Harvard professor Clarence Crane Brinton (1898-1968) and was first published in 1938.

It was said that the U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski relied on the author’s insights to ascertain the dynamics of the 1979 Iranian Revolution so that he could provide the then President Jimmy Carter with advice regarding the US administration’s course of action regarding Iran. The methods and analysis used in this book provide insightful broad and specific perspectives on how revolutions metamorphose beginning with the inception, then maturation and finally climaxing in either triumph or defeat.

The author focuses on these particular revolutions and identifies the stages of each one in order to zero in on common threads and internal mechanisms that they all share. The fourteenth century scholar Muhammad Ibn Khaldun who is considered to be the father of sociology alluded to similar stages in his Mugaddimah or Prolegomena, meaning “An introduction to history”. The only differences between the two are the cultural settings and the geographical locations meaning Europe, North America or North Africa / Middle East. Both Brinton and Ibn Khaldun are in agreement that what trigger uprisings are the existence and persistence of economic disparities between social classes and the ensuing sociopolitical alienation.

While the Tunisian youths’ Revolution had achieved its main goals including the ouster of Zein al-‘Abidin Bin Ali, the Egyptian youths’ Revolution is still at risk of falling short of achieving it ultimate goals including the ejection of President Hosni Mubarak and his government from power. Moreover it is rumored that the Egyptian opposition groups including Misr al-Ghad “Egypt Tomorrow”, Kefaya “Enough” and al-Ikhwan al-Muslimin “The Muslim Brotherhood” that have shown impenetrable solidarity so far are beginning to waver concerning the ultimate demands of the Egyptian people. Due to such developments it is necessary to utilize the guidelines and findings in Brinton’s book in an attempt to fathom the inner workings of world revolutions including Tunisia’s Revolution so as to foresee possible courses of actions that would enable the Egyptian Revolution to maintain its momentum and secure its ultimate goals.

The book is in essence divided into three parts that explore common denominators permeating known world revolutions. The first part focuses on the most known factors leading to people’s disillusionments with an existing political system therefore causing an initial simmering of resentment that sooner or later erupt into a nationwide revolution. The second part focuses on the all out confrontation with the system that involves maneuverings on both sides to secure the upper hand in the struggle for supremacy. The third part can be described as the climax which happened following the ultimate triumph of the revolution, the creation of a new system and a return to normalcy. Even though a triumph of a revolution is the most likely scenario but in some cases the possibility of suffering setbacks and reversals could still derail a revolution such as the 1848 Revolution to unify all German territories or the 1987 Saffron Revolution in Burma.

The author Brinton begins his analysis of world revolutions by outlining the most significant sociopolitical and socioeconomic factors that could lead to popular uprisings. These factors still ring true when applied to the Tunisian and Egyptian Revolutions. Having cited several reasons that could cause nationwide discontent and restlessness which includes restrictions on personal freedoms, unbridled oppression as well as economic inequality and corruption, the author then concludes that the existence of such repressive measures on the part of an unresponsive government could eventually lead to the unification of social classes to confront the existing regime.

Along with the immediate reactions to existing injustices he also attributes the unification of social groups to their disillusionment with their government particularly because of its failure to heed their seething resentment and betrayal of their overall consensus regarding matters of national importance. Another reason that he cites as a major contributor to the unleashing of popular revolt is widening disparity between the state and the people’s visions for the future. Once social classes are united in their oppositions to the state apparatus their leadership then present their tough and impossible demands to the government that if met would mean the collapse or the implosion of the regime from within. In most cases the setting leader or leaders of the regime would respond to such demands by unleashing their power on the revolting populace which could succeed in crushing the revolt as in the case of the 1987 Burmese revolution or fail to do so as in the case of the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

The besieged government could also conduct maneuvers to encircle the revolution in an attempt to scuttle and deflate it from within. Once the ultimate victory is achieved a new transitional or permanent government could then be established. However at this stage there exists the risk of internal conflicts between the revolutionaries due to rival ideologies along with individual or group agendas or ambitions among other things. If such a situation arises the outcome of such internal struggle could vary from the emergence of a charismatic and a unifying figure who subdues any rebellion from within or the situation may require the direct involvement of the general populace to reassert their will on the fledgling state and its leadership.

The stages common to revolutions according to the author Crane Brinton could still be applied to the Tunisian and Egyptian Revolutions as well as any future revolutions particularly in North Africa and the Middle East. When it comes to the principle reasons behind the eruption of revolutions the author’s emphasize on economic grievances and political oppression could easily fit both the Tunisian and Egyptian scenarios. We have seen that the Tunisian and Egyptian people were initially fed up with the entrenched economic disparities and inequalities as well as an absence of basic human rights coupled with an incessant intimidation and oppressions on the part of state police forces and unconscionable state thugs. Once the majority of the people, regardless of their social or political affiliations, unite in their opposition to the government and its setting president Bin Ali or Hosni Mubarak, they then present their ultimate demands including their insistence that the president step down and the regime be dismantled or as the slogan goes ‘Irhal (leave) in Arabic and in the case of Tunisia the people their shouted ‘Irhal in Arabic and Dégage in French for emphasis. Even though Bin Ali had no choice but to leave for Saudi Arabia the embattled Mubarak is still insisting on finishing his term in office which would mean staying put till September of this year.

While a transitional government is put in charge in Tunisia the people of Egypt are still waiting for Mubarak to gracefully resign the presidency and a transitional government is put in place. What could happen next apply to both Egypt and Tunisia? Whereas in Tunisia the possibility of internal rivalries between groups and parties seem non existence so far the fact that the Egyptian revolution has not reached a similar stage still precludes any further speculations.

However word to the wise there is nothing that could create fissures and implode revolutions more than internal squabbles over ideologies and political power. The Egyptian Revolution owes its reaching the pinnacle of unity and fortitude to the fact that various groups put aside their political, social and even religious differences so as to create an impenetrable alliance to achieve common purpose enshrined in democracy and human rights.

The last two of stages in the buildup of an enduring and stable post revolutionary government have not taken place in either Tunisia or Egypt but are necessary to the transition from an authoritarian to a democratic government. This would involve a smooth change over through fair and free elections or temporary but hopefully non violent reshuffling of political powers within a temporary or permanent government. I, for one, having been watching the highly commendable conduct of the citizenry and particularly the youths in Tunisia and Egypt even during times when they were subjected to the merciless brutality of their regimes, have no doubt what so ever that both revolutions will enter the annals of history as two of the most glorious times in the modern history of the Arab people and the Arab world. Say Ameen.