Greetings from the Project on Middle East Democracy!
Last week, the debate surrounding foreign aid spending continued as Congress prepares to return from a month-long recess. Tensions rose in Bahrain as protests escalated after the death of a 14-year-old boy and demonstrators marched toward Pearl Roundabout. After granting asylum to Gadhafi's family, Algeria expressed willingness to recognize the TNC once a government is formed. In Libya, Muammar Gadhafi vowed to resist the rebels, while the TNC demanded the return of Gadhafi's family from Algeria. Assad responded with continued violence as regional pressure and local dissent grew against his regime. In Iran, numerous political prisoners were freed, while dozens more were detained. Look for next week to be dominated by continued upheaval in Bahrain and Syria, and further developments in Libya's political transition, and the return of Congress into session.
For more detailed coverage of the debates surrounding U.S. foreign policy and the prospects for democracy in the Middle East, be sure to check out our blog, the POMED Wire.
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The Weekly Wire
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), chair of the House Committee on Foreign Relations, introduced H.R. 2829 to cut U.S. contributions to the U.N., unless major institutional changes allowing countries to opt out of funding parts of the U.N. are not made.
Committee Hearings
There were also no relevant committee hearings this week.
From Washington
Foreign Aid Debates Continue in Congress: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called for the U.S. government to devote more to foreign aid in the Middle East, noting a forthcoming $1 billion package for Egypt. In response to the legislation introduced by Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), State Department Spokesperson Victoria Nuland criticized the bill as “dangerously weaken[ing] the UN.” Peter Yeo said the bill would undermine the U.S. position at the U.N. and Bloomberg proposed that the U.S. should support the U.N. by working to fix it.
Syria: Analysts Discuss Downfall of Assad, E.U. Expands Sanctions to Oil: As Syrian President Bashar al-Assad‘s crackdown continues, analysts are questioning if the regime will fall. Andrew Tabler noted that Syria’s allies are pushing for reform, but not calling for the removal of Assad. Elliott Abrams described several scenarios that would lead to Assad’s downfall. Reuel Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz argue that the call to support the opposition in Syria is stronger than ever, especially for President Barack Obama.The E.U. agreed to formally adopt a ban on Syrian oil. The E.U. also plans to expand the list of people whose assets will be frozen added to the travel ban.
Libya: Sen. Schumer Links Lockerbie and Aid, World Leaders Vow Support: Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asking that further financial assistance to the Libyan Transitional National Council (TNC) be contingent upon the “re-imprisonment of [Lockerbie bomber] Abdel Baset al-Megrahi.” Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) also recently called for American health officials to examine al-Megrahi to determine whether he is healthy enough for “direct questioning.” Meanwhile, the U.K. Government delivered £140 million out of £950 million to the TNC in Tripoli. Inner City Press, a U.N. watchdog group, obtained a leaked U.N. plan for a post-Gadhafi Libya written by Ian Martin. Helene Cooper and Steven Lee Myers argued that the rebel seizure of Tripoli signifies a victory for Obama’s Middle East strategy, while Michael S. Schmidt continue. The State Department stated that a review of the Algerian position of harboring the Gadhafi family will have to take place within the U.N. Security Council.
On the Tripoli Task Force: James Traub described the work of the Tripoli Task Force, a 70-member task force formed by the Transitional National Council (TNC), to plan for reconstruction in the capital that oversaw a network of Libyans responsible for policing, water supply, fuel, school, etc.
Moroccan King Mohammed VI: “The Survivor”: Dan Ephron described the personality and lifestyle of Moroccan King Mohammed VI. King Mohammed is “unquestionably different” from other Arab leaders and from his father, the previous King of Morocco; this king is “genuinely popular” and “less repressive.”
London-Based Bahraini Group Linked to Iranian Government: The London Evening Standard has uncovered links between the Bahrain Freedom Movement and the Iranian Government. Elliott Abrams noted the link, questioning the motives of the organization.
Analysts Debate Sources of Influence on Arab Spring: Navid Hassanpour added his thoughts to the debate on social media influence in the Arab Spring, suggesting that the blocking of social media and cell phones pushed Egyptians into the streets thereby expanding the protests. Vali Nasr argued that sectarianism could exacerbate the conflict in Syria and spread throughout the region. Robert Kaplan assessed the realist nature of President Barack Obama‘s foreign policy towards the Arab uprisings.
Analysts Discuss Syrian-Iranian Alliance: Karim Sadjadpour discussed the close relationship between Iran and Syria and the threat that the end of the Syrian regime would pose to Iranian interests. Farnaz Fassihi wrote that Iranian support for Syria “has rapidly eroded Tehran’s credibility among Arab’s.” Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has reported that the uprisings are “legitimate only if they are anti-Western and anti-Israeli.” A report by Michael Eisenstadt noted that in Iran’s strategic culture, alliances are crucial to project their influence in the region. John Limbert argued that Robert Ford, U.S. ambassador to Syria, has shown bravery in his role and strongly urged Congress to confirm his nomination as vital to U.S. foreign policy.
From the Middle East
Algeria: Government Prepared to Recognize Libya’s NTC: Algerian Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci, announced that Algeria was prepared to recognize Libya’s Transitional National Council (TNC) once it composed a “government representative of all regions,” while the TNC announced it would withdraw support for the Polisario Front. Meanwhile debate continued regarding the motivation behind Algeria’s recent actions of granting asylum to Gadhafi family members. And Russia recognized the TNC as the legitimate authority in Libya, leaving China as the last U.N. Security Council member holdout.
Tunisia’s Voter Registration Receives Approval from International Community: The Carter Center released a statement that emphasized how Tunisia’s voter registration process was conducted smoothly. Police expressed anger over charges of killing protesters and are planning a sit-in on Tuesday.
Bahraini King Pardons Some Protesters, Calls for Unity: Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa announced a pardon for some protesters and called for unity. 14-year-old Ali Jawad al- Sheikh was killed when security forces fired tear gas canisters to disperse protesters. U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Spokesman Rupert Colville released an update on the situation in Bahrain highlighting the 264 current cases pending before a military trial. Al-Jazeera released an analysis on Bahrain’s “shameful” contribution to the Arab Spring. Many prisoners have reportedly begun a hunger strike, which has resulted in deteriorating health conditions.
Bahrain: Demonstrations as Protesters March on Pearl Roundabout: According to activists, tens of thousands of people protested in Bahrain’s restive city of Sitra in response to the death of Ali Jawad Ahmad on Wednesday. Crowds carried the boy’s body from his home to a cemetery, and were not confronted by security forces. The evening prior to the boy’s funeral, hundreds of protesters clashed with police in the capital while attempting to reoccupy the Pearl Roundabout where demonstrations centered earlier this spring. Sheikh Isa Qassim, a senior Shiite cleric, blamed police for the boy’s death. Many prisoners have reportedly begun a hunger strike, resulting in deteriorating health conditions.
Egypt: Military Trials Risk Destabilizing Transition: Eric Trager argued that continued use of military trials of civilians by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) “risks confrontation with the public.” Mohamed ElBaradei said the military trials of civilians deviates from the basic demands of the revolution. Hosni Mubarak’s trial was interrupted when fighting broke out among observers in the court. Additionally, the top officer testifying in Mubarak’s trial denied that police were ordered to fire on protesters. An Egyptian court scheduled October 24 for the first session of the trial of the chief of staff of former President Mubarak, Zakaraia Azmi.
In Egypt a General Feeling of Change Emerges: Michael Birnbaum noted how the atmosphere in Egypt has changed since the revolution. Egyptian presidential candidate Amr Mousa echoed his sentiments, noting the historic revolutionary fervor in the Middle East. The Revolutionary Youth Coalitions (RYC) plan to call on the ruling military council to step down during a mass protest planned in Tahrir Square on September 9. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyep Erdogan is scheduled to be in Egypt next week to discuss a strategic cooperation agreement between Turkey and Egypt.
Iran: Social Protests, Government Grants Rare Furloughs, Continue Arrests: Chanting protesters took to the streets protesting “misguided development policies” that resulted in Iran’s largest lake shrinking by about 60 percent in recent years. Dozens of political prisoners were granted furloughs or released outright in Iran, though a handful of other activists were imprisoned. Amnesty International reported that many prisoners continue to endure poor conditions in Iran’s crowded prisons often leading to health concerns. Meanwhile, security forces have been tracking participants in city-wide water fights via social media outlets as the events took on political tones, and Mehdi Karoubi, reportedly faces serious psychological danger. Additionally, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei commended the Arab protestors, calling their efforts “decisive and destiny making.” However, he exhorted them not to allow the West to manipulate the upheaval for their own benefit. And debate swirled regarding the damage done to Iran’s standing in the Arab world due to its unwavering support for Assad.
Libya: Gadhafi Family Flees; Contact Group Meeting: The Algerian government confirmed the arrival of family members of Muammar Gadhafi in the country. A Transitional National Council (TNC) spokesperson, Mahmoud Shamman, said the TNC would seek the extradition of Gadhafi’s family members. A TNC spokesman called the escape of Gadhafi family members an “act of aggression against the Libyan people,” and demanded their return. TNC leaders extended their deadline for pro-Gadhafi fighters to surrender, and rejected an offer to negotiate a transfer of power. Simultaneously, Muammar Ghadafi’s son, Saif al-Islam, vowed to continue the war and retake Tripoli, urging Libyans to participate, while his brother Saadi stated he was authorized to negotiate an end to the fighting with the NTC. . Rebels reported that members of Gadhafi's family were believed to have fled the town of Bani Walid and also stated that Gadhafi loyalists have one more week to surrender before facing military action. Rebel leaders believe that the Muammar Gadhafi may have escaped Libya by heading south through the desert border. Libya's interim government also reported plans to begin bringing irregular rebel militias under government control and also announced plans to draft thousands of men who helped oust Gadhafi to the police and find jobs for the remaining fighters. Currently, 25 doctors are trying to gain entry into Bani Walid to address the escalating humanitarian crisis. Reports have leaked that the Supreme Council of the Armed Froces (SCAF) want to play a role in Libya's reconstruction.
Pressure Mounts against Assad’s Government: Turkish President Abdullah Gul has “lost confidence” in the Syrian government and noted the Syrian regime could be replaced by force. Arab League foreign ministers, with Lebanon dissenting, issued a statement calling for an end to the bloodshed. Additionally, Grand Sheikh of Al-Azhar, Ahmed al-Tayyeb, condemned the security forces’ attack on a Damascus mosque. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad issued a new law ending government media control. Opposition leaders announced the formation of a Transitional National Council, designed to provide leadership for the opposition. The U.S. Treasury Department froze the assets of and banned business transactions with several leading government officials. And the U.N Security Council met last week in a closed door meeting to discuss competing resolutions on Syria. The E.U. banned Syrian oil imports. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said that the European Union could further strengthen sanctions on Syria after targeting its oil industry and "will press for more U.N. action."
Syria: Dissidents and Intellectuals Prevented from Leaving Country: Targeted arrests continue unabated, especially on protest organizers, evidence of torture continues to spread and several civilians were killed last week. The Attorney General of Hama province Adnan al-Bakkour resigned in protest over the government repression. The state run SANA news agency disputed al-Bakkour’s resignation. Meanwhile, Asharq Alawsat reported that several prominent dissidents and intellectuals have been prevented from leaving the country. A video emerged showing U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford being attacked in Damascus in late August. U.S. based Syrian activist Ammar Abdulhamid described the segment as “stupid” and misleading. The crackdown continued as security forces killed two people while searching for an alleged high-profile defector from President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The International Red Cross (ICRC) was permitted a visit to a Syrian prison for the first time since concerns erupted over the treatment of prisoners and the president of ICRC met with Assad.
Yemen: Saleh Reiterates Commitment to Elections: Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh reiterated his commitment to holding presidential elections within the next three months, despite reneging on transition of power agreements on three separate occasions. Opposition activists remain skeptical about the elections and protested in Sana’a.religious country, not a clerical regime.
On Wednesday (8/31), the Center for American Progress hosted a panel discussion entitled “A Unified Security Budget for the United States” with keynote speaker Thomas R. Nides. Panelists included Lawrence J. Korb and Miriam Pemberton. The event was moderated by Richard Verma.
The Weekly Wire is compiled by POMED Policy team members Alex Innes, Sarah Ravani, Alex Kraynak, Todd Ruffner, and Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff.