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Dear Friends,

Greetings from the Project on Middle East Democracy!

Last week, Libyan rebels began their assault on Tripoli and have succeeded in capturing nearly the entire city, although Muammar Gadhafi and most of his family are still on the run. Violence in Syria continued as opposition leaders began to form a national council. The Yemeni Prime Minister returned to Sana’a after months of recovery in Saudi Arabia while President Ali Abdullah Saleh remains defiant that he will soon return. And Bahraini authorities continue their repression of pro-democracy activists as Nabeel Rajab was summoned to a police station for interrogation, and violent crackdowns on protests continue. Look for next week to be dominated by the transition to Tripoli of the Libyan Transitional National Council and increased pressure on Syrian authorities.

For more detailed coverage of the debates surrounding U.S. foreign policy and the prospects for democracy in the Middle East, be sure to check out our blog, the POMED Wire.

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The Weekly Wire
 
August 29, 2011

Legislation

There was no relevant of legislation introduced this week, as Congress is on recess.


Committee Hearings

There were also no relevant committee hearings this week.

From Washington

Leaders React to Rebels Taking Tripoli: U.S. President Barack Obama said Libya was at “a tipping point” and called on the TNC to lead a democratic transition. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron and French Prime Minister Nicholas Sarkozy reiterated Obama’s remarks, and Obama and Sarkozy agreed that both countries would continue to support the democratic transition. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman said that the attempts by Gadhafi officials to reach out to him reflected “a sense of desperation.” Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, and Rick Santorum responded to developments in Libya. And Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said that victory would have been expedited by greater U.S. air support, and called for continued engagement with the TNC. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) called for an immediate end to the war and called for NATO to be held accountable under international law for the killing of civilians.


International Financial Support for TNC: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the release of $1.5 billion in frozen Libyan assets. The State Department provided a briefing on the process to secure the release of these funds, which will be divided into three key portions. Spokesperson Victoria Nuland noted the increased speed at which U.S. officials were working to release assets, and said the Libya Contact Group meeting in Turkey had “an upbeat spirit.” At the meeting, Deputy Secretary of State William J. Burns called on the international community to increase and coordinate its support for the TNC. The Libyan Contact Group agreed to speed the release of $2.5 billion in assets by the middle of next week. Mahmoud Jibril, the head of the Transitional National Council’s executive committee, met with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who pledged to unfreeze $350 million.

Analysts Discuss Progress of TNC: James Dobbins and Frederic Wehrey outlined the prospects for post-Gadhafi nation-building, the International Crisis Group (ICG) discussed the TNC’s challenges, and Brian Whitaker argued that in Libya the work ahead will be the hardest. Anthony Shadid discussed regional instability and Scott Stewart described the ethnic, tribal, and regional fault lines that will complicate the transition process, while Azza Kamel Maghur discussed the situation on the ground. Human Rights Watch called on all sides to avoid harming civilians. Anne Marie Slaughter defended NATO’s role and expressed hope that comparisons with Iraq will prevent similar mistakes. Blake Hounshell wrote of the apparent vindication of President Barack Obama‘s “lead from behind” strategy, and disagreed with Richard Hass, who argued that Libya needs an international stability force. Daniel Serwer and Max Boot also discussed the foreign stability force option. The Christian Science Monitor profiled Libyan-Americans involved in the revolutionary effort. The National Democratic Institute (NDI) provided an update on its efforts to support the TNC-led transition. Leslie Campbell of NDI defended the progress of the TNC. And Theo Emery noted that U.S. support for the Libya transition could face opposition from isolationists in Congress.

After Libya, Speculation on Syria: Marc Lynch discussed the interconnectedness of the Arab uprisings, and how events in Libya are inspiring protesters in Syria and Yemen. Philip Zelikow predicted that the fall of Tripoli will reinvigorate the Arab Spring and increase pressure on Syria. Rami G. Khouri argued that the lessons from Libya “provide a strong emotional impetus as well as logistical pointers” for others in the region. Rania Abouzeid described the parallels many in the “Twittersphere” are drawing between the apparent fall of Muammar Gadhafi and the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Los Angeles Times argued that the use of force to dislodge Muammar Gadhafi must not become a new model to remove autocrats, while Reuters speculated that the success of rebels in Libya could embolden opposition in Syria and inspire a stronger international response. Anthony Shadid described Syria as the emerging “front line of the Arab revolts,” yet Syrian activists remained cautious of drawing too many parallels between the two countries. And Ed Husain argued that the U.S. call for Assad to step down was a mistake.

Growing U.N. Pressure on Syria: The United Nations Human Rights Council held an emergency session on Syria, and passed a resolution ordering an investigation into human rights violations, which was opposed by China, Russia, and Cuba. The Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized foreign pressure on Syria, while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed support for the investigation. The U.S. and some E.U. countries circulated a draft resolution at the Security Council to strengthen sanctions. Russia hinted that it may veto the resolution, and Russia and China boycotted Security Council talks on the draft.

Hastening Assad’s Departure: David Schenker outlined steps the U.S. administration can take to hasten the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Salwa Ismail argued that Assad’s fall is inevitable, given the growing numbers of professionals and members of the business class that are beginning to support the opposition movement. Josh Rogin noted how Ambassador Robert Ford’s recent visit to Jassem could impact his confirmation hearing. State Department Spokesperson Victoria Nuland defended the peaceful nature of the opposition, and its success in heeding U.S. advice to better organize. Nuland also condemned the government’s attack on political cartoonist and activist Ali Farzat. Human Rights Watch challenged the regime’s accounts of the crackdown.

Arab Spring, U.S. Policy Debated: James Traub predicted that the “Arab Spring is likely to produce better outcomes for Arab peoples.” Examining uprisings in Libya, Syria, and Egypt, Erica Chenoweth defended nonviolent resistance as the most effective way to produce change. The Council on Foreign Relations compiled an Issue Guide to changes in the region and implications for U.S. policy. Michael Doran argued that the U.S. must remain focused on its regional strategy and manage intra-Muslim conflicts. Kori Schake criticized the U.S. soft power philosophy. And Josh Rogin interviewed top White House official Ben Rhodes who argued that the Obama administration’s “multilateral and light-footprint approach to regime change is more effective than the troop-heavy occupation-style approach used by the George W. Bush administration in Iraq and Afghanistan.” Finally, the Pentagon downplayed the remarks by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who said that Iraqi officials had agreed to negotiate an extension of U.S. troops.

Speculation on Regional Tensions: Bruce Riedel discussed the vulnerabilities and underlying tensions that could lead to unrest in Algeria. Sean Yom argued that the constitutional reforms in Jordan would not adequately address the impediments to democratization. Priyanka Motaparthy described the Kuwaiti regime’s crackdown on political dissent, which has discredited the regime. Robin M. Mills discussed the pending economic crisis in Saudi Arabia. Michael Hanna criticized the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’ “erratic decision-making process and its complete lack of transparency.” Eric Trager discussed the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the political transition. And Deborah Ball and Cassell Bryan-Low outlined the difficulties Tunisian and Egyptian officials are having in tracking down and repatriating the assets of their former leaders held in Swiss bank accounts.

Iranian Abuses Condemned: Reporters Without Borders condemned the recent increase in arrests and abuse on journalists within Iran, and the U.S. State Department labeled Iran as the “most active sponsor of terrorism.” The European Union expanded Syria sanctions toward Iran’s Revolutionary Guard for its involvement in aiding Syrian security forces.

Also Worth Reading
The Afro-Middle East Centre released a briefing entitled, "Yemen on the Brink: The Implications of the Uprising" outlining the uprising's history, societal divisions, and prospects for the future.

From the Middle East

Libya TNC Moves to Tripoli: Transitional National Council (TNC) Finance Minister Ali Tarhouni announced the Council had begun their work in Tripoli and that TNC leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil would move to Tripoli as soon as the security situation allowed it.


Gadhafi’s Family Still on the Run: The rebels nearly captured Muammar Gadhafi in a Tripoli safe house as Saif al-Islam Gadhafi was reported captured and then seen later at a pro-Gadhafi rally. Al-Saadi Gadhafi is in captivity while Muhammad Gadhafi escaped. There are reports that European and Arab operatives are assisting in the search for Muammar Gadhafi. The rebels control most of Tripoli, and have taken over the Bab al-Aziziya compound, amid fighting throughout other areas of the country.

International Recognition of the TNC: Egypt, Tunisia, Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, Nigeria, Morocco, the Arab League and several African nations have recognized the TNC. Ali Aujali, the Libyan ambassador to the U.S. described the repatriation of Gadhafi assets as a critical priority, including the immediate release of $2.5b in frozen assets.

TNC Plans For Post Gadhafi: TNC leader, Mustafa Abdel Jalil announced the new Libyan government will hold free elections in eight months, and will put Muammar Gadhafi on trial in Libya. Dr. Aref Nayed and Ahmed Jehani, leaders of the TNC Stabilization Team announced the formation of a Tripoli Security Committee and called for rapid U.N. assistance. Leaders announced plans to address the shortages of water, fuel and electricity, while also announcing a $1.3 million reward for capturing or killing Gadhafi.

Response to Syrian Protests: Thousands protested in Syria, taunting President Bashar al-Assad in response to his recent televised interview. The U.N. humanitarian mission visited Hama and was asked to leave for security reasons. U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford made an unannounced trip to Jassem, in southern Syria while Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on the Syrian regime to accept the people’s demands for reform.

Syrian Opposition Support: Syrian opposition leaders meeting in Istanbul, Turkey moved closer to forming an opposition national council but mistrust and deep divisions have stymied the process. The Arab League held an urgent meeting meeting on Saturday evening to discuss a timeframe to push for Syrian reforms and issue a call for the violence to end by finalizing a peace intiative to solve the crisis in Syria. Massive protests occurred in celebration of the last Friday of Ramadan, and many protesters have begun shouting “Bye, bye Gaddafi, Bashar your turn is coming.”

Syria: Gunmen Attack Political Cartoonist, Crackdown Continues: Syrian gunmen reportedly attacked anti-regime cartoonist, Ali Ferzat and broke both of his hands as a “warning to stop drawing.” Several Facebook groups were formed in solidarity with Ferzat. Dozens were killed, including a 28-year-old woman tortured to death last week by regime loyalists. Security forces killed citizens in numerous provinces and engaged in gun battles with army defectors.

Bahraini Government Interrogating Activists, Trials Continue: Nabeel Rajab, President of the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights (BCHR), was summoned to a police station for an hour-long interrogation. Roula al-Saffar and Jalila al-Salman were released from prison but will be tried in military courts, along with 13 other medical professionals, in a policy reversal for the regime. Amnesty International and Human Rights First condemned the decision. The Shia cleric Sheikh Isa Qassim received a letter from the Minister of Justice, warning against the incitement of violence based on the Sheikh’s religious position. Bahrain also experienced the first widespread protests in months, resulting in numerous injuries and deaths.

Iraqi Troop Withdrawal, Yemeni Leader Returns: The media advisor to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and an Iraqi government spokesperson emphasized that an agreement on U.S. troop withdrawal had not been finalized. And Yemeni Prime Minister Ali Mujawar returned to Sana’a but senior regime official Abdel Aziz Abdul-Ghani died from his injuries.

New Reports of Iranian Human Rights Abuses; Gender Segregation: The Observatory for the Protection of Human Rights Defenders requested an intervention in Iran regarding the human rights violations. The Iranian regime is planning to separate boys and girls at Iranian preschools. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran requested that the Iranian Central Bar Association aid embattled lawyers. Activist Mohammad Seifzadeh sent an open letter to Mohammad Khatami highlighting the violations of prisoner’s judicial rights. Imprisoned lawyer Nasin Sotoudeh refused visits by her family after they were “roughly treated” during their visit two weeks ago by the prison staff.

Egypt: James Kirchick interviewed Muslim Brotherhood leader Essam el-Erian who described Egypt as a tolerant and moderate religious country, not a clerical regime.

 

In Case You Missed It

There were no relevant events this week.

The Weekly Wire is compiled by POMED policy team members Alex Innes, Shannon Coyne, and Sarah Ravani.

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