The Weekly Wire

في الجمعة ١٢ - أغسطس - ٢٠١١ ١٢:٠٠ صباحاً

Legislation

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and Rep. Eliot L. Engel (D-NY) authored the Syria Freedom Support Act (H.R. 2106) to strengthen existing U.S. sanctions against the Syrian regime. 

Committee Hearings
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a nomination hearing to confirm Ambassador Robert S. Ford to Syria and Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone Jr. to Turkey.
  
From Washington

International Response to Syrian Violence: In response to escalating violence, President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned President Bashar al-Assad and called for a democratic transition. The U.S. was preparing new sanctions. Three U.S. senators prepared a bill to block Syrian access to U.S. markets. The British Foreign Secretary ruled out military intervention and a spokesperson said Assad is “should reform or step aside.” The E.U. increased sanctions and Italy recalled its ambassador, citing the government’s “horrible repression.” Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) said that Italy’s decision will increase international isolation, and called for further sanctions and recalling Ambassador Ford. Russia shifted its position, calling the violence is unacceptable.
U.N. Security Council Condemns Syria: A group of Syrian activists called on South Africa, Brazil, and India to support Security Council action. Britain, France, Germany and Portugal revived a draft U.N. resolution condemning the Syrian regime. The Security Council held days of discussions, which initially stalled but resulted in a statement condemning the regime’s crackdown and calling for an immediate end to violence. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon welcomed the statement. One editorial argued that the U.N. gave Assad “a lifeline” and another described it as “weak consolation” from the international community.
Meeting with Syrian Activists: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Syrian activists to express sympathy for those killed and discuss the opposition’s vision. In a press conference, activists called on President Barack Obama to demand that President Bashar al-Assad step down. State Department Spokesman Mark Toner described the opposition as less coherent than in Libya but evolving. He also affirmed Ambassador Robert Ford will return to Syria.
Analysts Discuss Syrian Regime’s Demise: An editorial argued that Assad’s crackdown in Hama may be “his biggest miscalculation yet.” Jeffrey White analyzed the growing strains on the army. Sami Moubayed predicted that protests will grow in Damascus and Aleppo. Bassma Kodmani argued that the success of the Syrian revolution hinges on the Sunni opposition reassuring the Alawite community. Thomas Friedman discussed the tension between authoritarian and democratic trends in Syria. Deborah Jerome questioned international efforts to stop the regime. Martin Jay discussed the importance of regional players. Josh Rogin described the increasing pressure on the administration to call for Assad’s removal. Blake Hounshell and Josh Rogin argued the U.S. is “unequivocally committed” to Assad’s ouster, while David Schenker condemned the administration’s “apparent ambivalence.” Elliott Abrams discussed how American leadership can help prevent a Syrian civil war, and that Ford should be recalled.  Randa Slim argued that additional economic sanctions would destablize Syria's economy and negatively affect Assad. Ambassador Robert Ford interviewed with ABC's Christiane Amanpour and discussed the increasing violent situation in Syria.
Stability in Bahrain: Thomas W. Lippman noted the U.S.-Bahrain relationship “could become untenable.” Peter Pearson discussed the importance of stability and hoped the regime would “turn a new page.” A second European Tour event was postponed.  U.S. and Bahraini officials renewed their defense pact which allows the U.S. to access bases within Bahrain, though a U.S. official cautioned that: "Obviously, it's a very delicate situation over there right now, so you never know what could change."
Analysts on Turkish Military Resignations: Stephen Kinzer discussed the changing relationship between civilian and military leadership and Stephen Cook noted diminished popular support for the military. Ergun Babahan argued that “Turkey has passed a critical juncture.” Alexander Christie-Miller noted the fear of a military operational crisis. Benny Morris argued that Islamists are using democratic means to take over. The Economist argued that Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has a tighter grip on the military. A second article described the influence of the Turkish model. Soner Cagaptay and Margaret Weiss argued that the Arab Spring has transformed the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey.
Support for the TNC, Increase Support for Islamist Movement: U.S. Envoy to Libya Chris Stevens discussed the progress of the TNC. State Department Spokesperson Mark Toner echoed Stevens’ comments on the diversity of groups in Libya and the TNC’s work on inclusion. The French government gave the TNC $259 million in unfrozen assets, to be used strictly for humanitarian purposes. Doug Saunders writes on the Islamist movement in Libya specifically citing Mohammed Busidra has the "post-Gadhafi kingmaker."
U.S. Pushes Iraq for Decision: Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen said that any U.S. troops remaining in Iraq must be given immunity, and that the decision must be made quickly. Reuters noted that the immunity requirement could complicate the discussions. Scott Cleeland argued that the U.N. could prove its usefulness once the U.S. withdraws.
HRW Criticizes Saudi Counterterrorism Law: Kenneth Roth of Human Rights Watch, wrote a letter (with an attached memorandum) to Saudi King Abdullah, urging him to withdraw from cabinet consideration the draft counterterrorism law.
Military’s Role in Egypt Debated: Dina Guirguis and Eric Trager argued that recent events in Tahrir Square reflect collaboration between Islamists and the SCAF to marginalize liberal and leftist revolutionary forces. Marc Lynch discussed how these events demonstrate the tension between liberals and Islamists, and growing competition within religious groups. Steven Cook argued that the “Turkish model” of the military leadership would hinder the transition. Trager also noted that Mubarak's trial will be a "substantial, if not insurmountable" challenge for the youth working for a democratic transition.
Focus on Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen: The U.N. released their 6th report about the humanitarian situation in Yemen. Kelly McEvers discussed the instability in Yemen, and Victor Henderson and Theo Padnos speculated on the country’s future. 
U.S. Role in Region: Robert Danin discussed U.S. regional priorities, emphasizing the importance of economic growth and avoiding a one-size-fits-all policy. Senator John Kerry (D-MA) defended foreign aid as a crucial tool in serving U.S. interests.
Arab Youth and Bloggers Threatened: Sara Sorcher predicted that disorganization in youth groups could lead to their under-representation in new governments. And in a recent survey, 7% of regional bloggers were detained and 30% personally threatened.
Attention on Opposition and Engagement in Iran: Michelle Moghtader outlined why Iranians have protested, speculating that patience is best for now. The U.S. State Department announced a new Persian language social media program to engage young Iranians.
 
Also Worth Reading
Al-Jazeera released “an astonishing account” by the only TV journalists who remained in Bahrain during the pro-democracy protests. The journalists followed the protesters as they were "crushed" by security forces.
The Washington Institute released a model of the 12 leading Syrian opposition groups.  The model includes a graphic of Syrian opposition groups' membership within Syria, outside Syria and a mixture of both.  In addition, it highlights the links between the opposition groups. 

From the Middle East
Mubarak Trial Begins: Former President Hosni Mubarak was cleared for trial, despite fears of his absence. The courtroom venue was changed for security reasons. The trials of Mubarak, his sons Gamal and Alaa Mubarak, the former Interior Minister Habib el-Adly, and six other former officials, charged with murder and corruption, began with all pleading not guilty. The trial for Habib el-Adly and six officials will resume August 14, while the Mubarak family’s trial will resume August 15. A former judge described the trial as a “decisive moment,” but an attorney fears the speed of the trial may undermine the charges. Only state media has been permitted to film the trial. Also present were 85 lawyers representing victims’ families. Many rushed to address the presiding judge, creating chaos.
Military Clears Cairo’s Tahrir Square, Muslim Brotherhood Holds Elections: Riot police supported by the military and ordinary citizens cleared Tahrir Square of the protesters remaining after 26 revolutionary groups suspended their sit-in for Ramadan. Security forces used electric prods and fired blank ammunition against resisting protesters, while some shop owners reportedly cheered. Activists in Egypt called for a massive protest in Tahrir Square August 12 in an effort to denounce military assaults on protesters. The Muslim Brotherhood held its first election, however, former Muslim Brotherhood members were not invited.
Syrian Violence Escalates: Violence escalated daily throughout Syria, with hundreds dead. In Hama, water, electricity and communication were cut as the city faced continuous bombardment and gunfire. Responding to international criticism, President Bashar al-Assad issued a decree authorizing a multi-party system. The law was dismissed by opposition. Turkey, Qatar and Kuwait condemned the violence while Lebanese MP Michel Aoun defended the regime.  The Gulf Cooperation Council called for an end to violence against protesters. 
Protests and Bombings in Yemen, Saleh Discharged from Hospital: President Ali Abdullah Saleh implied that a new election will not be called despite a constitutional stipulation. He called for an end to protests, saying they will not bring change. Fighting continued in Zinjibar and Taiz, and protests in Taiz and Ibb. A government official accused the military and opposition parties of attempting a coup. A Sana’a University professor announced 27 crimes against humanity by the regime. Clashes broke out in Sana’a between Sheik Sadeq al-Ahmar supporters and Yemeni forces. Bombing in Arhab district was apparently carried out in part by Iraqi pilots after Yemeni pilots refused. Numerous fighters and civilians were killed. The Yemeni Air Force also reportedly killed at least 240 soldiers who refused to fight.  President Saleh was discharged from the hospital and has since moved into a government residence in Saudi Arabia.
Turkey Appoints New Military Leaders: Turkish President Abdullah Gul appointed four new top military leaders to replace those who resigned last week after the Supreme Military Council’s annual meeting.
Bahrain Investigations: Cherif Bassiouni described the King and Crown Prince as more committed to reform than others in the al-Khalifa clan. He noted that the investigation cannot address underlying problems in Bahrain. Activist Zainab al-Khawaja criticized Bassiouni’s statement. The King ordered the government to approve the recommendations of the National Dialogue, despite opposition al-Wefaq’s condemnation. Protests continued demanding reform.  
Human Rights Violations in Bahrain: Two Bahraini activists began a hunger strike to protest their imprisonment. Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) reported that Bahraini police raided their offices, arrested a staff member and confiscated medical equipment. Bahraini human rights activists documented the kidnapping and torture of a Bahraini man named Ahmar. The Ministry of Interior released a statement countering the documentation. Other abuses included a 14-year-old boy old boy, a 50-year-old killed by tear gas, and other attacks. Bahrain ordered the release from prison of two former MPs, Matar Matar and Jawad Fairooz, and transferred their trials to civilian court.
Gadhafi’s Sons: Seif al-Islam Gadhafi claimed, in a radical shift, that the regime is forging an alliance with radical Islamists in order to defeat the rebels. Gadhafi loyalists fought with rebels in the strategic western town of Zlitan. A NATO airstrike reportedly killed Gadhafi’s son Khamis, along with 32 others. The Libyan government denies the reports, called “a ploy.”
Iraqi Leaders Discuss U.S. Presence: After discussions, Iraqi leaders, including Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari and President Jalal Talabani, approved the launching of negotiations over U.S. troops remaining after 2011.
Continuing Abuses in Iran: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad discounted the possibility of an uprising. Mohammad-Reza Naghdi announced a program to “enlighten” the public on elections. The U.N. Special Rapporteur on human rights called for government cooperation. Iran continued to harshly treat political prisoners and curtail their rights. Reports emerged of cultural figures, among others, being arrested. And youth were detained for a water fight.
 
In Case You Missed It
On Thursday (7/28), the Modernizing Foreign Assistance Network (MFAN) and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) held a discussion entitled, “On the Cutting Edge of Aid Effectiveness: Best Practices and Lessons Learned from the [MCC]”.
On Tuesday (8/2), a group of U.S. based Syrian activists hosted a press conference after meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, and senior U.S. diplomat Fred Hof.
On Thursday (8/5) the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) hosted a panel discussion entitled “The Repercussions of Delisting the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK).”

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