The Delay in Removing Mubarak Can Change Chaos in Egypt from 'Reversible' to 'Irreversible'

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The Delay in Removing Mubarak Can Change Chaos in Egypt from 'Reversible' to 'Irreversible'  

By Tawfik Hamid

www.tawfikhamid.com

The single most important desire of millions of the protestors in Egypt is to end the presidency of President Mubarak immediately. This desire is not coming from one single group but, on the contrary, it represents the desire of most sectors in the Egyptian society irrespective of their faith, socio economic class or level of education.   

President Mubarak said that he is worried that if he left now chaos will ensue. The reality is that he is the one who started this chaotic situation when he refused to leave power until now.

There are several factors that can lead to a destructive vicious cycle. These factors include:

1-     The expected collapse of the tourism industry.

2-     The likely weakening of the Egyptian currency.

3-     The loss of trust in the Egyptian economy which discourages foreign investors.

These factors can significantly increase the already existent very high levels of poverty. Such an increase in poverty can lead to an increase in crime rates and in Islamic extremism, which can accelerate previously mentioned destructive vicious cycle described.   

If President Mubarak continues to refuse to leave power, it is likely that a percentage of those millions who are currently demonstrating against him will turn to the use of violence. This -in the current gloomy situation- can bring the above mentioned destructive cycle to a situation of irreversibility and make is much harder to control.

There is nothing that can stop this nightmare but the resignation of the president immediately. 

Timing is very crucial as the more the president remains in power the more likely the problem will become more complicated and difficult to cure. In addition, the delay of intervention by the military - who were celebrated by the protestors in the early stages of the demonstrations - to remove Mubarak will be seen by the Egyptian people as collaboration with a tyrant and will make the job of the military much more complicated to control the country in this unusable and explosive situation.

The delay in removing Mubarak by the military can change the situation in a way that makes it uncontrollable by any one. The respect that the military have in the hearts and minds of the Egyptian people can be lost if they do not remove him NOW. This respect for the military is fundamental to bringing stability back to the country.

The time factor in this situation is similar to the situation of coronary heart disease when the delay in treating a heart attack can change it from reversible angina to irreversible myocardial infarction. In other words, giving a correct treatment to a patient after his death is useless.

The plan of Mubarak was simply to create this situation of chaos so that he finds a reason to remain in power (to control it).  What we need to realize is that the more the delay in removing Mubarak the more the problem is likely to change from a potentially controllable situation to an uncontrollable one. If the US informed the Military in Egypt that the US will stop its military aid if they did not immediately remove Mubarak it is likely that he will be removed within 24 hours of receiving this information.

 
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