Gamal Mubarak and the Discord in Egypt's Ruling Elite
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Stephan Roll September 1, 2010
Whether Gamal Mubarak will be the ruling National Democratic Party’s (NDP) candidate in the 2011 presidential election is one of the most discussed questions in Egypt today. Campaigns have sprung up in Egypt and abroad to collect signatures in support of his candidacy—an apparent attempt to counter similar campaigns in support of former International Atomic Energy Association head Mohammed ElBaradei, and perhaps to force the ruling elite’s hand—but they are a side show. Much more crucial will be President Hosni Mubarak’s state of health, the degree of unity within the elite regarding Gamal’s candidacy, and the future course of the country. For the first time in Egypt’s modern history, the business elite are playing a role in the succession question, but it is still not clear whether that role will be decisive.
The Stalled Rise of the New Guard
The new guard of businessmen affiliated to Gamal, which saw a remarkable rise inside the NDP from 2000 onward and has dominated the cabinet since 2004 under the leadership of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, recently seems to have peaked. Particularly in the last two years—coinciding with the global recession and increasing protests at the new guard’s neoliberal economic agenda—there has been a shift inside the NDP. While President Mubarak has headed the party since 1981, the party’s six-member general secretariat shows an even balance between the old guard represented by Secretary General Safwat al-Sharif, Presidential Chief of Staff Zakaria Azmi, and Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Mufid Shehab, and the new guard represented by Deputy Secretary General Gamal Mubarak, Secretary for Organizational Affairs Ahmed Ezz, and Secretary for Information Ali Hilal al-Dessouki. Old guard figures dominated the NDP congress in 2009 much more than other gatherings in recent years, and Safwat al-Sharif reportedly played the primary role in nominating NDP candidates for the June 2010 Shura Council elections. Regarding policies, old guard NDP leaders have become publicly critical of the Nazif government’s reform plans, provoking a slowdown in the government’s privatization course.
The old guard’s motivation within this power game is transparent. The new guard stands for an economic course that benefits
