O Al-Sisi! Run Away from Egypt Now, Before It Is Too Late!
Published in October 6, 2019
Translated by: Ahmed Fathy
Firstly: about the piece of news we read:
1- We read a piece of news about how Al-Sisi regime of Egypt has failed within its negotiations with Ethiopia about (the renaissance dam); the months-old negotiations apparently reached an impasse.
2- We have predicted this failure since the beginning of the Egyptian-Ethiopian negotiations; this is because of the fact that the success of any party within any negotiations depends on two factors as follows.
2/1: The economic and military power and the international weight of the State; this will enable it to pressurize the other party.
2/2: The field of politics has its negotiation experts, skills, steps, and tactics; one must make the most of all that.
3- The Al-Sisi regime of Egypt lacks the previous two factors.
3/1: As for the military power, the Egyptian military armed forces are in the worst conditions ever despite importing useless weapons with the aim of (1) bribing certain first-world countries to make them remain silent regarding the oppression inflicted by Al-Sisi military regime on the Egyptian citizens, and (2) increasing the amounts of money smuggled by Al-Sisi regime from the wealth of the Egyptian nation. Al-Sisi, we think, receives a commission from every deal of purchasing weapons. Sadly, the Egyptian Parliament has no power to check the financial affairs of the Egyptian military armed forces. This is forbidden by the Egyptian Law until now. This means no one can impeach the President or check how Al-Sisi controls the wealth of the Egyptian nation. We think that when Al-Sisi purchased submarines, he never intended to wage a war against Ethiopia, a state very far away from Egypt.
3/2: As for the international and regional weight, during the era of Al-Sisi, Egypt has been dwarfed as a dependent State which relies on the KSA and the UAE; Al-Sisi is a dwarf and he shrinks the more whenever he meets with Ibn Salman of the KSA and Ibn Zayed of the UAE; this shrinking increases when he meets with presidents of the West countries.
3/3: As for the economic power, foreign debts of Egypt doubled, redoubled, and tripled; the next generations of Egyptians will spend many years to settle such debts which have nothing to do with them as citizens. Sadly, inflation and soaring prices in Egypt have reduced many members of the middle-class to poverty and many members of the poorer classes to the fringes of hunger and pennilessness.
3/4: Al-Sisi has no experts in negotiations or diplomacy; the era of excellent Egyptian diplomacy was in the royal epoch before the 1952 coup d'état. Many Egyptian excellent diplomats of the royal epoch were employed by Nasser in his cabinet of ministers; Sadat did the same but they tendered their resignation because they protested against how Sadat negotiated the Camp David Accords, which are believed by many Egyptians (until now) to be against the Egyptian interests as Sadat seemed to be keen on pleasing the USA and the West powers. Later on, within the Mubarak era, the Egyptian diplomacy deteriorated gradually, but it descended into the worst abyss during the era of Al-Sisi; this resulted in the impasse reached within the Egyptian-Ethiopian negotiations. It was a pathetic and a laughter-inducing scene when the media showed Al-Sisi helping the Ethiopian prime-minster to sayin Arabic that he will not harm Egypt and the Egyptians in the least. This is a painful jest/playing by an actor like Al-Sisi who failed as a negotiator; his failures include ceding the Egyptian rights within the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. We tend to think that Al-Sisi is a clown who will cause more failure in the future; his only victory is in oppressing the Egyptian citizens and turning the military generals into sellers and merchants of different goods and merchandise!
Secondly: after the negotiations with Ethiopia failed, what are the alternatives before Al-Sisi?:
1- He has resorted to some Arab countries and some West countries, and then to the UN and the USA; he has complained to the international community as if he were about to weep; this is a kind of jesting or acting because he knows quite well he has no alternatives before him.
2- He cannot wage a war against Ethiopia because such a war would cost too much, bearing in mind the huge debts and the big economic problems of Egypt now; besides, the Egyptian corrupt military generals of today never fought within any battles; they are busy with trade and with stealing and smuggling money. Of course, geographically speaking, Ethiopia is very far away from Egypt; the Egyptian military (even if it is powerful enough) cannot reach it to punish it. If the Egyptian military would manage one day to destroy (the renaissance dam), this may provoke Ethiopia to retaliate by destroying the High Dam of Egypt in Aswan; this will cause a tremendous harm to Egypt; besides, if (the renaissance dam) is destroyed one day, the resulting flood might cover and drown large stretches of land in both Sudan and Egypt.
3- The only alternative left for Al-Sisi (who is an inveterate liar) is to offer false promises and assurances to the Egyptian citizens to allay their fears; he is so skillful in telling lies in his speeches, and like a professional actor, he weeps before the lens of media cameras; he should have been an actor instead of a president who never drop the act before the Egyptian media cameras when he delivers his speeches to the Egyptian nation.
Thirdly: the facts remain: Egypt may very soon face an alarming scarcity of water in the River Nile:
1- The Egyptian annual share of the River Nile water is 55.5 billion square meters; this was enough when the Egyptian population was 40 million people and not the current 100 million people.
2- If the River Nile water would lessen within 2% annually, Egypt may lose 200 thousand feddans of agricultural areas, one million jobs, the income of about 200 thousand families, 1.8 billion US$ annually, and 300 million US$ worth of electricity.
3- Every five billion square meters of water shortage means that Egypt may lose one million feddans of agricultural areas; Egypt may lose 15 billion square meters of the River Nile water annually as Ethiopia would take five years to fill the lake behind (the renaissance dam) with about 74 billion square meters of water.
4- The Egyptian share of the River Nile water is now about 600 square meters annually, per capita, instead of 2500 square meters in the past. This is about 40% less than the 1000 square meters estimated by the UN for each person annually worldwide. The low percentage announced in the Egyptian media might lead to the loss of one-third of agricultural areas in the Nile Delta in Egypt; this may cause a famine in the near future; the water demand may increase by 35% in the year 2019/2020; the Egyptian population is now more than 100 million people; this is not to mention the return of hundreds of thousands of Egyptian families to Egypt after they left their jobs in the Gulf monarchies (or got sacked!); many houses and apartments (as well as new cities) were built and this will increase the water demand; sadly, the annual shortage of water is above 20 billion square meters in Egypt.
5- The rates of rainfall and the area of the lake behind (the renaissance dam) make some experts assume that eleven years would be needed so that this Ethiopian lake would be filled with water; the amount of water in the River Nile in Egypt will lessen within 25% at least in the next seven years, as per the estimates of some experts.
6- The water level in Lake Nasser, south of Egypt, is not enough to make up for the loss of such an amount of water in Egypt, except for three years only, as per the estimates of some experts.
7- The shortage of water stored behind the High Dam in Egypt will have its negative influence on the amount of electric energy; it may lessen within 20% or 40% as per the estimates of some experts. This will cause a crisis in electricity in Egypt.
Fourthly: the scarcity of water in the River Nile may result into a famine within the future years:
1- The River Nile has its three cycles; each continues for seven years; the first one is when heavy rains falls on the Abyssinian Plateau; the second one has a moderate amount of rain; the third one has very little rain; in 2019, we are in the second year of the third cycle, and Egypt (where the estuary of the River Nile is located at the Mediterranean Sea) is the most harmed country by this. The amount of water in the River Nile in Egypt is expected to lessen by approximately 5 billion square meters; undoubtedly, this will negatively influence the industrial and agricultural sectors in Egypt.
2- During the Middle-Ages, the Egyptians suffered famines many times because of the very low levels of the River Nile water as the flood did not come; of course, the Lord God mentions in the Quranic story of Joseph how a famine struck Egypt for seven years but Joseph saved Egypt from it; no one came after Joseph to save Egypt from the dire consequences of other famines in later eras.
Fifthly: two historical narratives about famines in Egypt during the Middle-Ages:
(A) During the reign of the Fatimid caliph Al-Mustansir: a famine of seven years (457 – 464 A.H.) (1065 – 1071 A.D.):
1- The historian Ibn Katheer wrote about the seven-year famine during the caliphate of Al-Mustansir, asserting that soaring prices included almost everything; people had to cook and consume flesh of dead and alive animals (dogs, elephants, horses, mares, donkeys, and mules), and human corpses; some corpses of the thieves and murderers who were crucified or hanged in public were not found in the next day as the masses cooked and ate their flesh. Some killers kidnapped women and children to slaughter, cook, and eat them; when any of such killers was put to death by crucifixion, the masses cooked and ate his flesh; people were afraid to bury the dead in broad day light in graveyards lest the corpses might be stolen and eaten; some merchants among the desert-Arabs were afraid to bring their goods by day into Cairo lest the hungry masses might attack and steal these goods which were mostly food items. Dogs were sold (as food!) in return for 5 dinars each; a Fatimid vizier momentarily left his mule in the street and he returned to find his servants barbecuing the flesh of his mule after they slaughtered it; he put them to death; people (who got used to cannibalism!) stole the crucified corpses of such servants to consume their flesh!
2- The Egyptian historian Al-Makrizi wrote that as soaring prices of food increased all over Egypt, people could no longer afford them; corruption and crimes of stealing and murder increased in the streets of Cairo and major cities; goods and food items became scarce. People had to consume the flesh of dead animals and human corpses; bread was no longer baked as flour was stolen by the hungry masses; the famine struck every village and city; some people cooked and consumed the fruit-less palm trees after removing their outer layers; some mob kidnapped children, women, and men to kill/slaughter and barbecue them! Some fat women were tied, naked, with robes and the cannibalistic hungry masses cut off pieces from their flesh to barbecue them! Some of these women survived to tell the tale after they ran away and were rescued by medical doctors! The famine caused the death of so many people en masse on a daily basis; piles of men, women, and children were buried in mass graves or inside huge pits.
(B) During the Ayyubid Era in Egypt: a famine in Ramadan in 595 A.H.:
The Iraqi medical doctor and philosopher/thinker Abdul-Latif Al-Baghdadi visited Cairo, Egypt, at the time and witnessed this famine; he wrote as an eye-witness that the hungry masses consumed dead and alive animals (esp. dogs), human corpses, and even the dung of different animals; some of them kidnapped, slaughtered, barbecued, and consumed small children; the policemen (who investigated the matter whenever they found bones of children in the streets and alleys) punished such killers by burning them alive; a mother and a father slaughtered and barbecued their only son; they were brought to the judge and were put to death by being burned alive at the stake. Bones of adults (men and women) spread in the streets and alleys during Ramadan; a woman was dragged by the mob, inside a market, who desired her to leave the barbecued child she was eating so that they would eat it instead of her! No one among the passers-by expressed astonishment or tried to stop this scene of savagery! This was becoming 'ordinary' at the time! Two young men kidnapped a male child in the street and barbecued and consumed his flesh, after strangling him, and no policemen were there to punish them this time! Hunger caused madness among the cannibalistic masses who kidnapped and ate children! When there were no children left, adults began attacking and killing one another to find food; i.e., the flesh of human corpses! When sometimes the policemen would crucify or hang a thief or a murderer in public, his corpse was consumed as food in the same night! People tricked and entrapped one another as they hunted one another; i.e., human beings were seen as food! A woman was invited to a banquet and saw large plates of barbecued meat; she ran away when her host told her it was the flesh of a fat woman tricked into entering this house to be slaughtered, barbecued, and eaten! The frightened woman ran to the police so that the owner of this house would be punished along with his wife, but they ran away just in time. Another tale is about a rich, pregnant woman who pined for meat but her husband, a merchant, was away from Egypt in his journeys; she smelt the barbecued meat in the house of her neighbors; when she was invited to eat, she loved the taste of this human flesh; she hired men to hunt, slaughter, and barbecue more people for her! She became a cannibal like most dwellers of Cairo at the time! When the policemen arrested her, she was not put to death because she was pregnant and her husband was absent; her being hanged was postponed until she delivered her baby! Abdul-Latif Al-Baghdadi wrote that he could not write all what he saw; he sometimes ran away in disgust from unsightly scenes or horrid situations! Many people consumed the flesh of their own family members and offspring or grandchildren for fear of dying of hunger since the victims might be kidnapped and consumed by others, anyway! The governor of Cairo made policemen search all houses; more often than not, human bones and remains were found (un)cooked in most houses! In many cities from Cairo to Aswan and from Alexandria to Damietta and Fayoum, many people sold, cooked, and ate corpses of the dead who were buried recently or long ago! Many highwaymen slaughtered and ate travelers when they raided caravans; many human corpses and bones were floating in the River Nile and were strewn in the streets and alleys. Many villages and cities became ghost cities as no dwellers remained in them. Some families sold their adult sons and pretty daughters into slavery in return for few dirhams or in return for food items! Some wicked, rich men bragged that they bought 50 or 70 pretty, formerly free young women, as they became female slaves, in return for few dinars!
Lastly:
1- Al-Sisi will do Egypt, and himself and his family members, much good if he would run away from Egypt now, before it is too late.
2- When he runs away from Egypt, the honest national generals in the Egyptian military armed forces will make the armed forces return to the barracks to go on protecting and defending Egypt; this is their original and only mission; the military regime must be brought to an end; military generals are never fit for ruling Egypt. When the military regime would end one day, the Egyptians will form an interim government which will introduce the much-needed constitutional and legislative reforms which will be the basis for real, solid democracy which will have a civil mechanism regarding governing and rule; this will be followed by radical reform of education and establishing the culture of free speech and absolute religious freedom; in that case, Egypt will manage to face the imminent famine and scarcity of water.
3- If Al-Sisi is too reluctant to run away from Egypt and he would witness the imminent famine when it takes place, the hungry Egyptians will devour him alive along with his wife and children!
4- We advise the rat known as Al-Sisi to run away from Egypt now, before it is too late!